Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Gardner-Webb at Marshall, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Marshall beat Gardner-Webb 36–35, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Marshall wins 8 of 10. Gardner-Webb had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 17 points of win probability to Gardner-Webb.
Before kickoff Marshall was a 94% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:57 left): A. Bonde missed a 27-yard field goal, worth 28 points of win probability to Marshall.
Final
 Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs | 35 |
|---|---|
 Marshall Thundering Herd | 36 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Marshall about even · −19 Gardner-Webb
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Gardner-Webb wins 2, Marshall wins 8.
- 1 GWEB 27 MRSH 15
- 2 GWEB 24 MRSH 20
- 3 GWEB 7 MRSH 10
- 4 GWEB 28 MRSH 35
- 5 GWEB 14 MRSH 24
- 6 GWEB 14 MRSH 27
- 7 GWEB 14 MRSH 31
- 8 GWEB 7 MRSH 27
- 9 GWEB 10 MRSH 35
- 10 GWEB 14 MRSH 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Gardner-Webb wins 19% of them, Marshall 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Marshall by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Gardner-Webb by 17+ | 2.9% |
| Gardner-Webb by 9–16 | 5.5% |
| Gardner-Webb by 1–8 | 10.1% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Marshall by 1–8 | 21.8% |
| Marshall by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Marshall by 17+ | 38.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Diaz Nicolas, 54 yds made · 47% expected
- A. Bonde, 53 yds missed · 49% expected
- J. Diaz Nicolas, 21 yds made · 94% expected
- J. Diaz Nicolas, 34 yds missed · 82% expected
- A. Bonde, 27 yds missed · 89% expected
- J. Diaz Nicolas, 32 yds made · 84% expected
Penalties: Gardner-Webb 11 for 99 yards, Marshall 10 for 100 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:26 | False Start on Gardner-Webb, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MRSH +1.0 pts |
| Q1 2:00 | Face Mask on Marshall, 15 yards | +1% GWEB +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:23 | False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GWEB +0.8 pts |
| Q2 8:34 | False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GWEB +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:00 | Personal Foul on Marshall, 15 yards | +2% GWEB +1.6 pts |
| Q2 7:16 | Pass Interference on Marshall, 15 yards | +1% GWEB +1.0 pts |
| Q2 7:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Gardner-Webb, 15 yards | +1% MRSH +0.9 pts |
| Q2 3:58 | Roughing the Kicker on Gardner-Webb, 15 yards | +5% MRSH +3.4 pts |
| Q2 3:02 | Pass Interference on Marshall, 10 yards | +3% GWEB +1.9 pts |
| Q2 1:41 | Holding on Gardner-Webb, 10 yards | +1% MRSH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:08 | Holding on Gardner-Webb, 10 yards | +1% MRSH +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:32 | Holding on Gardner-Webb, 9 yards | +1% MRSH +0.8 pts |
| Q3 14:20 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | +1% GWEB +1.4 pts |
| Q3 13:01 | Illegal Forward Pass on Gardner-Webb, 5 yards | 0% MRSH +0.3 pts |
| Q3 12:45 | Personal Foul on Gardner-Webb, 15 yards | +1% MRSH +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:31 | Offside on Gardner-Webb, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MRSH +0.5 pts |
| Q3 11:27 | Face Mask on Marshall, 15 yards | +1% GWEB +1.7 pts |
| Q3 0:17 | False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GWEB +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:50 | Delay of Game on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GWEB +0.6 pts |
| Q4 6:06 | Delay of Game on Gardner-Webb, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MRSH +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:13 | Delay of Game on Gardner-Webb, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MRSH +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Marshall’s chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 1:18 | Marshall converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% MRSH | MRSH: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q4 12:23 | Gardner-Webb converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% GWEB | GWEB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 11:12 | Gardner-Webb converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +14% GWEB | GWEB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 9:24 | Gardner-Webb converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +8% GWEB | GWEB: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 7:21 | Marshall converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +5% MRSH | MRSH: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 4:23 | Gardner-Webb converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +22% GWEB | GWEB: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:57 | The game turned hereA. Bonde missed a 27-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +28% MRSH | GWEB: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:03 | J. Diaz Nicolas made a 32-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him | +7% MRSH | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Gardner-Webb 51% · Marshall 49%
- Final margin
- Marshall by 1
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for Marshall
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Gardner-Webb by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Gardner-Webb 19% · Marshall 81% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Gardner-Webb · 
Marshall
More from Week 4 2026
- App State at NC State NCSU 41–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Tulane TULN 24–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Arkansas State ARST 17–14 · replay 56% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe FAU 45–17 · replay 70% for the winner
- Troy at Utah State USU 21–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Georgia State GAST 35–14 · replay 80% for the winner
- Louisiana at Charlotte UL 34–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- James Madison at Old Dominion JMU 46–20 · replay 93% for the winner
- Liberty at Coastal Carolina LIB 34–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Houston at Georgia Southern HOU 42–28 · replay 98% for the winner
- Lindenwood at Eastern Michigan EMU 29–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- South Alabama at Kentucky UK 45–21 · replay 100% for the winner