Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Houston at Georgia Southern, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Houston beat Georgia Southern 42–28, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Houston wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Houston was an 87% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:48 left): Personal Foul on Georgia Southern, 12 yards, worth 8 points of win probability to Houston.
Final
 Houston Cougars | 42 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Southern Eagles | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Houston about even · −2 Georgia Southern
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Houston wins 10, Georgia Southern wins 0.
- 1 HOU 52 GASO 7
- 2 HOU 38 GASO 0
- 3 HOU 40 GASO 7
- 4 HOU 42 GASO 13
- 5 HOU 35 GASO 10
- 6 HOU 31 GASO 10
- 7 HOU 34 GASO 14
- 8 HOU 38 GASO 21
- 9 HOU 24 GASO 13
- 10 HOU 31 GASO 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Houston wins 98% of them, Georgia Southern 2%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Houston by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Houston by 17+ | 77.7% |
| Houston by 9–16 | 13.4% |
| Houston by 1–8 | 6.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Georgia Southern by 1–8 | 1.4% |
| Georgia Southern by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Georgia Southern by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Houston 4 for 45 yards, Georgia Southern 9 for 79 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:23 | Illegal Formation on Georgia Southern, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% HOU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 7:06 | False Start on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GASO +0.1 pts |
| Q1 6:48 | Intentional Grounding on Georgia Southern, 15 yards | +1% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 13:23 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards | +1% HOU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 11:23 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards | +3% HOU +2.4 pts |
| Q2 7:09 | Personal Foul on Georgia Southern, 2 yards | +1% HOU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 5:48 | Personal Foul on Georgia Southern, 12 yards | +10% HOU +6.6 pts |
| Q2 5:08 | Holding on Houston, 10 yards | +1% GASO +1.3 pts |
| Q3 9:24 | Personal Foul on Houston, 15 yards | 0% GASO +1.6 pts |
| Q4 14:20 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GASO +0.7 pts |
| Q4 12:32 | Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% HOU +3.9 pts |
| Q4 9:51 | Pass Interference on Houston, 15 yards | 0% GASO +2.5 pts |
| Q4 4:27 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards | 0% HOU +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Georgia Southern’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:17 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +1% GASO | GASO: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 12:41 | Georgia Southern fumbled and Houston recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% HOU | GASO: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 10:30 | Houston converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +2% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 12:16 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +3% GASO | GASO: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 11:23 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% HOU | HOU: End of half |
| 6 | Q2 7:46 | Houston converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +1% HOU | HOU: End of half |
| 7 | Q2 5:48 | Houston converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedPersonal Foul on Georgia Southern, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +8% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 5:08 | Holding on Houston, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% GASO | GASO: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Houston 99% · Georgia Southern 1%
- Final margin
- Houston by 14
- Luck in points
- 2.2 for Houston
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Houston by 11.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Houston 98% · Georgia Southern 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Houston · 
Georgia Southern
More from Week 4 2026
- App State at NC State NCSU 41–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Tulane TULN 24–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Arkansas State ARST 17–14 · replay 56% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe FAU 45–17 · replay 70% for the winner
- Arizona at Washington State ARIZ 34–24 · replay 73% for the winner
- Troy at Utah State USU 21–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- TCU at UCF UCF 21–13 · replay 77% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Georgia State GAST 35–14 · replay 80% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Marshall MRSH 36–35 · replay 81% for the winner
- Colorado at Baylor BAY 23–13 · replay 81% for the winner
- Kansas State at Cincinnati CIN 31–26 · replay 83% for the winner
- Louisiana at Charlotte UL 34–7 · replay 90% for the winner