Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Colorado at Baylor, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Baylor beat Colorado 23–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Baylor wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Baylor was a 71% favorite.
Final
 Colorado Buffaloes | 13 |
|---|---|
 Baylor Bears | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Baylor about even · −19 Colorado
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colorado wins 2, Baylor wins 8.
- 1 COLO 31 BAY 17
- 2 COLO 20 BAY 17
- 3 COLO 13 BAY 15
- 4 COLO 6 BAY 13
- 5 COLO 3 BAY 13
- 6 COLO 10 BAY 23
- 7 COLO 10 BAY 27
- 8 COLO 6 BAY 27
- 9 COLO 6 BAY 30
- 10 COLO 3 BAY 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colorado wins 19% of them, Baylor 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Baylor by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colorado by 17+ | 2.5% |
| Colorado by 9–16 | 6.0% |
| Colorado by 1–8 | 10.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Baylor by 1–8 | 19.6% |
| Baylor by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Baylor by 17+ | 40.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Arnold, 24 yds made · 91% expected
- R. Armstrong, 37 yds made · 77% expected
- R. Armstrong, 27 yds made · 89% expected
- E. Arnold, 46 yds made · 61% expected
- R. Armstrong, 54 yds made · 47% expected
Penalties: Colorado 8 for 72 yards, Baylor 10 for 84 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:05 | False Start on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% COLO +0.8 pts |
| Q1 12:38 | False Start on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% COLO +0.9 pts |
| Q1 5:17 | Face Mask on Baylor, 14 yards | +3% COLO +1.6 pts |
| Q1 4:11 | False Start on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BAY +1.4 pts |
| Q2 11:57 | False Start on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAY +0.8 pts |
| Q2 10:29 | Holding on Colorado, 10 yards | +1% BAY +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:15 | Offside on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% COLO +0.2 pts |
| Q2 8:24 | Pass Interference on Colorado, 12 yards | +1% BAY +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:00 | Pass Interference on Baylor, 10 yards | +1% COLO +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:50 | Pass Interference on Colorado, 15 yards | +3% BAY +1.6 pts |
| Q3 14:50 | Holding on Colorado, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +5% BAY +2.6 pts |
| Q3 8:25 | Holding on Colorado, 10 yards | +1% BAY +0.5 pts |
| Q3 4:28 | Face Mask on Baylor, 15 yards | +2% COLO +1.4 pts |
| Q3 1:15 | False Start on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% COLO +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:54 | Face Mask on Baylor, 15 yards | +4% COLO +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:31 | Pass Interference on Colorado, 15 yards | +4% BAY +2.1 pts |
| Q4 1:51 | Delay of Game on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% COLO +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:08 | Intentional Grounding on Colorado, 0 yards | 0% BAY 0.0 pts |
When it happened
Baylor’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:17 | Face Mask on Baylor, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +3% COLO | COLO: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 2:16 | Baylor converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% BAY | BAY: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 8:24 | Colorado was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedPass Interference on Colorado, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +6% BAY | COLO: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 2:59 | Baylor converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +3% BAY | BAY: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 14:50 | Holding on Colorado, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% BAY | BAY: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 13:40 | Colorado converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +5% COLO | COLO: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 14:54 | Face Mask on Baylor, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% COLO | COLO: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 6:31 | Pass Interference on Colorado, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% BAY | BAY: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colorado 37% · Baylor 63%
- Final margin
- Baylor by 10
- Luck in points
- 7.8 for Baylor
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Baylor by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Colorado 19% · Baylor 81% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Colorado · 
Baylor
More from Week 4 2026
- Arizona at Washington State ARIZ 34–24 · replay 73% for the winner
- TCU at UCF UCF 21–13 · replay 77% for the winner
- Kansas State at Cincinnati CIN 31–26 · replay 83% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at West Virginia OKST 41–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Utah at Iowa State UTAH 31–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Houston at Georgia Southern HOU 42–28 · replay 98% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Texas Tech TTU 49–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner
- Minnesota at Washington MINN 27–24 · replay 40% for the winner