luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Utah at Iowa State, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Utah beat Iowa State 31–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Utah wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Utah was a 69% favorite.

Final

Utah Utes 31
Iowa State Cyclones 17

September 26, 2026 · Jack Trice Stadium · Closing line: Utah −7.5

Luck index +4 Utah about even · −4 Iowa State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Utah wins 10, Iowa State wins 0.

  1. 1 UTAH 49 ISU 3
  2. 2 UTAH 37 ISU 0
  3. 3 UTAH 45 ISU 13
  4. 4 UTAH 28 ISU 0
  5. 5 UTAH 34 ISU 10
  6. 6 UTAH 34 ISU 14
  7. 7 UTAH 24 ISU 7
  8. 8 UTAH 42 ISU 28
  9. 9 UTAH 27 ISU 17
  10. 10 UTAH 14 ISU 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Utah wins 96% of them, Iowa State 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Utah by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Utah by 17+73.9%
Utah by 9–1613.7%
Utah by 1–87.9%
Level after regulation0.9%
Iowa State by 1–82.6%
Iowa State by 9–160.7%
Iowa State by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to Iowa State: the final margin was Utah by 14, without the luck Utah by 19. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. Curtis, 27 yds made · 90% expected
  • K. Konrardy, 47 yds made · 62% expected
  • D. Curtis, 31 yds missed · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Utah 8 for 69 yards, Iowa State 5 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:00 False Start on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ISU +0.5 pts
Q1 7:58 Face Mask on Utah, 15 yards +3% ISU +1.6 pts
Q1 6:27 Personal Foul on Iowa State, 15 yards +2% UTAH +1.6 pts
Q2 13:56 Ineligible Downfield on Utah, 5 yards 0% ISU +0.6 pts
Q2 7:47 Offside on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ISU +1.7 pts
Q2 0:33 False Start on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTAH +0.4 pts
Q2 0:28 Pass Interference on Utah, 14 yards 0% UTAH +0.2 pts
Q2 0:21 Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards 0% UTAH +1.2 pts
Q3 14:54 Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards 0% UTAH +0.6 pts
Q3 11:24 Pass Interference on Utah, 5 yards 0% ISU +1.2 pts
Q3 0:59 False Start on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ISU +0.6 pts
Q4 13:46 Pass Interference on Utah, 15 yards 0% ISU +2.4 pts
Q4 10:30 Roughing the Passer on Iowa State, 15 yards +1% UTAH +2.1 pts

When it happened

Iowa State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Iowa State was ahead in it, below while Utah was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:46 Utah was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +2% ISU UTAH: Punt
2 Q1 7:58 Face Mask on Utah, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% ISU ISU: Punt
3 Q1 6:44 Iowa State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +2% UTAH ISU: Punt
4 Q1 6:27 Personal Foul on Iowa State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% UTAH UTAH: Touchdown
5 Q1 5:24 Utah converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% UTAH UTAH: Touchdown
6 Q1 3:47 Utah was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected +2% ISU UTAH: Touchdown
7 Q1 3:04 Utah converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +2% UTAH UTAH: Touchdown
8 Q1 0:13 Iowa State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +3% UTAH ISU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Utah 100% · Iowa State 0%

Final margin
Utah by 14
Luck in points
5.0 for Iowa State
Luck-adjusted margin
Utah by 19.0
Replay with same day's form
Utah 96% · Iowa State 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Utah · Iowa State

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