Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Arizona at Washington State, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Arizona beat Washington State 34–24, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Washington State had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Washington State.
Before kickoff Arizona was a 77% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:05 left): Return touchdown by Washington State, worth 12 points of win probability to Washington State.
Final
 Arizona Wildcats | 34 |
|---|---|
 Washington State Cougars | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Arizona lucky · −27 Washington State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arizona wins 7, Washington State wins 3.
- 1 ARIZ 45 WSU 14
- 2 ARIZ 24 WSU 0
- 3 ARIZ 21 WSU 3
- 4 ARIZ 17 WSU 3
- 5 ARIZ 28 WSU 18
- 6 ARIZ 24 WSU 17
- 7 ARIZ 23 WSU 20
- 8 ARIZ 21 WSU 24
- 9 ARIZ 7 WSU 14
- 10 ARIZ 10 WSU 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arizona wins 73% of them, Washington State 27%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arizona by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arizona by 17+ | 32.2% |
| Arizona by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| Arizona by 1–8 | 19.6% |
| Level after regulation | 4.7% |
| Washington State by 1–8 | 14.4% |
| Washington State by 9–16 | 6.4% |
| Washington State by 17+ | 3.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Stevens, 39 yds blocked · 73% expected
- J. Stevens, 33 yds made · 82% expected
- M. Salgado-Medina, 42 yds missed · 66% expected
- M. Salgado-Medina, 43 yds blocked · 64% expected
- M. Salgado-Medina, 27 yds made · 86% expected
- M. Salgado-Medina, 51 yds made · 49% expected
Penalties: Arizona 5 for 65 yards, Washington State 7 for 56 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:41 | Holding on Arizona, 8 yards, wiping out the play | +5% WSU +1.9 pts |
| Q1 0:08 | Delay of Game on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARIZ +0.6 pts |
| Q1 0:08 | False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WSU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:43 | Personal Foul on Arizona, 15 yards | +4% WSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:39 | Pass Interference on Arizona, 15 yards | +2% WSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:21 | Personal Foul on Arizona, 12 yards | +4% WSU +1.5 pts |
| Q3 13:54 | False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARIZ +0.8 pts |
| Q3 13:02 | Holding on Washington State, 11 yards, wiping out the play | +6% ARIZ +2.0 pts |
| Q3 1:07 | Chop Block on Washington State, 15 yards | +4% ARIZ +1.6 pts |
| Q4 11:39 | Holding on Washington State, 10 yards | +2% ARIZ +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:32 | False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARIZ +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:26 | Roughing the Passer on Arizona, 15 yards | +1% WSU +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Washington State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:05 | Return touchdown by Washington StateSpecial teams | +12% WSU | WSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 1:41 | Holding on Arizona, 8 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% WSU | WSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 3:36 | J. Stevens had a 39-yard field goal blockedKicks · 73% expected for him | +7% ARIZ | WSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 13:02 | Holding on Washington State, 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% ARIZ | ARIZ: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q3 10:05 | Arizona was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +5% WSU | ARIZ: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q3 9:25 | M. Salgado-Medina missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him | +9% WSU | ARIZ: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q3 8:16 | Washington State fumbled and Arizona recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% ARIZ | WSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 6:00 | M. Salgado-Medina had a 43-yard field goal blockedKicks · 64% expected for him | +8% WSU | ARIZ: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arizona 65% · Washington State 35%
- Final margin
- Arizona by 10
- Luck in points
- 7.4 for Arizona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arizona by 2.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Arizona 73% · Washington State 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Arizona · 
Washington State
More from Week 4 2026
- Rice at Fresno State FRES 38–24 · replay 59% for the winner
- Troy at Utah State USU 21–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- TCU at UCF UCF 21–13 · replay 77% for the winner
- Colorado at Baylor BAY 23–13 · replay 81% for the winner
- Kansas State at Cincinnati CIN 31–26 · replay 83% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at West Virginia OKST 41–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Colorado State at UTSA UTSA 59–45 · replay 96% for the winner
- Utah at Iowa State UTAH 31–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Boise State at Western Michigan BOIS 32–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Houston at Georgia Southern HOU 42–28 · replay 98% for the winner
- San Diego State at Toledo TOL 41–16 · replay 99% for the winner
- Incarnate Word at Texas State TXST 63–10 · replay 99% for the winner