luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Incarnate Word at Texas State, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Texas State beat Incarnate Word 63–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Texas State was a 98% favorite.

Final

Incarnate Word Cardinals 10
Texas State Bobcats 63

September 26, 2026 · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · Closing line: Texas State −30.5

Luck index +1 Texas State about even · −1 Incarnate Word

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Incarnate Word wins 0, Texas State wins 10.

  1. 1 UIW 27 TXST 35
  2. 2 UIW 20 TXST 35
  3. 3 UIW 24 TXST 45
  4. 4 UIW 10 TXST 35
  5. 5 UIW 20 TXST 49
  6. 6 UIW 7 TXST 41
  7. 7 UIW 24 TXST 62
  8. 8 UIW 9 TXST 51
  9. 9 UIW 3 TXST 51
  10. 10 UIW 0 TXST 56

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Incarnate Word wins 1% of them, Texas State 99%. The line is what actually happened: Texas State by 53.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Incarnate Word by 17+0.0%
Incarnate Word by 9–160.0%
Incarnate Word by 1–80.4%
Level after regulation0.2%
Texas State by 1–82.5%
Texas State by 9–164.8%
Texas State by 17+92.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.1 points to Texas State: the final margin was Texas State by 53, without the luck Texas State by 44.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Incarnate Word 7 for 60 yards, Texas State 6 for 51 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:16 Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UIW +0.3 pts
Q1 4:36 Delay of Game on Incarnate Word, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TXST +0.4 pts
Q1 0:38 False Start on Incarnate Word, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TXST +0.4 pts
Q2 9:20 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Incarnate Word, 15 yards 0% TXST +1.9 pts
Q2 9:06 False Start on Incarnate Word, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TXST +0.4 pts
Q2 5:26 Personal Foul on Texas State, 14 yards 0% UIW +1.6 pts
Q2 5:03 Roughing the Passer on Texas State, 7 yards 0% UIW +1.2 pts
Q2 1:18 Running Into the Kicker on Texas State, 5 yards 0% UIW +0.3 pts
Q3 14:56 Holding on Incarnate Word, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% TXST +1.9 pts
Q3 14:01 Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UIW +1.0 pts
Q3 9:43 Personal Foul on Incarnate Word, 15 yards 0% TXST +1.6 pts
Q4 13:18 False Start on Incarnate Word, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TXST +0.4 pts
Q4 6:49 Personal Foul on Texas State, 15 yards 0% UIW +1.6 pts

When it happened

Texas State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Texas State was ahead in it, below while Incarnate Word was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:49 Texas State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +0% TXST TXST: End of half
2 Q1 12:20 Incarnate Word converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +0% UIW UIW: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:07 Texas State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +1% TXST TXST: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:28 Incarnate Word was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +0% TXST UIW: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 8:21 Incarnate Word was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +0% TXST UIW: Punt
6 Q1 7:33 Texas State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +0% TXST TXST: Touchdown
7 Q1 6:30 Texas State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +0% TXST TXST: Touchdown
8 Q3 14:56 Holding on Incarnate Word, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% TXST TXST: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Incarnate Word 0% · Texas State 100%

Final margin
Texas State by 53
Luck in points
8.1 for Texas State
Luck-adjusted margin
Texas State by 44.9
Replay with same day's form
Incarnate Word 1% · Texas State 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Incarnate Word · Texas State

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