Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Rice at Fresno State, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Fresno State beat Rice 38–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Fresno State wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Fresno State was a 79% favorite.
Final
 Rice Owls | 24 |
|---|---|
 Fresno State Bulldogs | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +41 Fresno State lucky · −41 Rice
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rice wins 4, Fresno State wins 6.
- 1 RICE 34 FRES 13
- 2 RICE 35 FRES 21
- 3 RICE 27 FRES 20
- 4 RICE 24 FRES 21
- 5 RICE 28 FRES 31
- 6 RICE 9 FRES 14
- 7 RICE 21 FRES 31
- 8 RICE 28 FRES 42
- 9 RICE 14 FRES 34
- 10 RICE 28 FRES 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rice wins 41% of them, Fresno State 59%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Fresno State by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rice by 17+ | 10.4% |
| Rice by 9–16 | 10.4% |
| Rice by 1–8 | 17.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.7% |
| Fresno State by 1–8 | 20.9% |
| Fresno State by 9–16 | 16.5% |
| Fresno State by 17+ | 20.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Gota, 54 yds missed · 46% expected
- E. Gota, 22 yds made · 91% expected
- M. Watanabe, 29 yds made · 89% expected
Penalties: Rice 4 for 25 yards, Fresno State 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 1:45 | Offside on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% RICE +0.2 pts |
| Q3 14:24 | False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% RICE +0.8 pts |
| Q3 3:05 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | +1% RICE +0.4 pts |
| Q4 13:05 | Face Mask on Rice, 5 yards | +1% FRES +1.0 pts |
| Q4 7:37 | False Start on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RICE +0.6 pts |
| Q4 6:13 | Holding on Rice, 10 yards | 0% FRES +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Fresno State’s chance of winning
As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:10 | Fresno State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +4% RICE | FRES: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 5:49 | Fresno State was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +6% RICE | FRES: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 2:00 | Rice fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% RICE | RICE: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q2 1:50 | E. Gota missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 46% expected for him, 2 of 7 from 45+ before | +6% FRES | RICE: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 14:34 | Fresno State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% FRES | FRES: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 8:30 | Rice converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +4% RICE | RICE: Turnover |
| 7 | Q3 7:10 | Rice fumbled and Fresno State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% FRES | RICE: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 1:45 | Fresno State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +4% FRES | FRES: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rice 5% · Fresno State 95%
- Final margin
- Fresno State by 14
- Luck in points
- 4.1 for Fresno State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Fresno State by 9.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Rice 41% · Fresno State 59% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Rice · 
Fresno State
More from Week 4 2026
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Tulane TULN 24–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- South Florida at Bowling Green USF 14–6 · replay 68% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe FAU 45–17 · replay 70% for the winner
- Arizona at Washington State ARIZ 34–24 · replay 73% for the winner
- Troy at Utah State USU 21–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Louisiana at Charlotte UL 34–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- Colorado State at UTSA UTSA 59–45 · replay 96% for the winner
- Boise State at Western Michigan BOIS 32–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- North Carolina Central at East Carolina ECU 42–9 · replay 98% for the winner
- San Diego State at Toledo TOL 41–16 · replay 99% for the winner