luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

North Carolina Central at East Carolina, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

East Carolina beat North Carolina Central 42–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, East Carolina wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff East Carolina was a 99% favorite.

Final

North Carolina Central Eagles 9
East Carolina Pirates 42

September 26, 2026 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · Closing line: East Carolina −37.5

Luck index +2 East Carolina about even · −2 North Carolina Central

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. North Carolina Central wins 0, East Carolina wins 10.

  1. 1 NCCU 20 ECU 26
  2. 2 NCCU 28 ECU 41
  3. 3 NCCU 24 ECU 41
  4. 4 NCCU 38 ECU 59
  5. 5 NCCU 3 ECU 27
  6. 6 NCCU 13 ECU 42
  7. 7 NCCU 7 ECU 40
  8. 8 NCCU 14 ECU 50
  9. 9 NCCU 10 ECU 52
  10. 10 NCCU 7 ECU 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

North Carolina Central wins 2% of them, East Carolina 98%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: East Carolina by 33.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
North Carolina Central by 17+0.1%
North Carolina Central by 9–160.5%
North Carolina Central by 1–81.4%
Level after regulation0.6%
East Carolina by 1–85.3%
East Carolina by 9–168.8%
East Carolina by 17+83.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to East Carolina: the final margin was East Carolina by 33, without the luck East Carolina by 31.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • R. Daniels, 39 yds made · 74% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: North Carolina Central 8 for 62 yards, East Carolina 8 for 95 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 10:13 False Start on North Carolina Central, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ECU +0.5 pts
Q2 9:54 False Start on North Carolina Central, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% ECU +0.1 pts
Q2 9:34 Personal Foul on North Carolina Central, 15 yards 0% ECU +1.6 pts
Q2 7:39 Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards 0% NCCU +0.6 pts
Q2 7:08 Face Mask on East Carolina, 15 yards 0% NCCU +0.9 pts
Q2 6:07 Personal Foul on East Carolina, 15 yards 0% NCCU +1.6 pts
Q2 4:41 Illegal Formation on North Carolina Central, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ECU +0.7 pts
Q3 9:21 False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NCCU +0.3 pts
Q3 8:44 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on East Carolina, 15 yards 0% NCCU +2.9 pts
Q3 5:43 False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NCCU +3.1 pts
Q3 5:43 Offside on North Carolina Central, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ECU +0.3 pts
Q3 3:59 Delay of Game on North Carolina Central, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ECU +0.8 pts
Q4 13:36 Personal Foul on East Carolina, 15 yards 0% NCCU +1.6 pts
Q4 12:01 Personal Foul on East Carolina, 15 yards 0% NCCU +1.6 pts
Q4 7:15 Pass Interference on North Carolina Central, 15 yards 0% ECU +0.7 pts
Q4 5:41 Holding on North Carolina Central, 8 yards 0% ECU +1.6 pts

When it happened

East Carolina’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while East Carolina was ahead in it, below while North Carolina Central was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:40 North Carolina Central converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +0% NCCU NCCU: Field goal
2 Q1 11:15 North Carolina Central was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +0% NCCU NCCU: Field goal
3 Q1 10:47 R. Daniels made a 39-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him +0% ECU NCCU: Punt
4 Q1 8:40 East Carolina converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +0% ECU ECU: Turnover
5 Q1 7:50 East Carolina fumbled and North Carolina Central recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% NCCU ECU: Touchdown
6 Q1 6:22 North Carolina Central was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +0% ECU NCCU: Punt
7 Q4 5:41 North Carolina Central converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedNorth Carolina Central converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedHolding on North Carolina Central, 8 yardsJudgment calls +0% ECU NCCU: End of game
8 Q4 0:31 North Carolina Central converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedNorth Carolina Central missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time +2% ECU NCCU: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

North Carolina Central 0% · East Carolina 100%

Final margin
East Carolina by 33
Luck in points
1.8 for East Carolina
Luck-adjusted margin
East Carolina by 31.2
Replay with same day's form
North Carolina Central 2% · East Carolina 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · North Carolina Central · East Carolina

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