luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Colorado State at UTSA, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

UTSA beat Colorado State 59–45, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UTSA wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff UTSA was an 83% favorite.

Final

Colorado State Rams 45
UTSA Roadrunners 59

September 26, 2026 · Alamodome · Closing line: UTSA −14.5

Luck index +4 UTSA about even · −4 Colorado State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colorado State wins 0, UTSA wins 10.

  1. 1 CSU 27 UTSA 31
  2. 2 CSU 31 UTSA 41
  3. 3 CSU 24 UTSA 38
  4. 4 CSU 24 UTSA 42
  5. 5 CSU 24 UTSA 47
  6. 6 CSU 16 UTSA 42
  7. 7 CSU 7 UTSA 38
  8. 8 CSU 17 UTSA 53
  9. 9 CSU 10 UTSA 51
  10. 10 CSU 17 UTSA 70

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colorado State wins 4% of them, UTSA 96%. The line is what actually happened: UTSA by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colorado State by 17+0.4%
Colorado State by 9–161.1%
Colorado State by 1–82.3%
Level after regulation0.3%
UTSA by 1–86.5%
UTSA by 9–1610.1%
UTSA by 17+79.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to UTSA: the final margin was UTSA by 14, without the luck UTSA by 13.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Petro, 44 yds missed · 66% expected
  • M. Petro, 46 yds made · 61% expected
  • K. Nguma, 51 yds made · 53% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colorado State 10 for 56 yards, UTSA 3 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:06 Illegal Formation on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UTSA +0.3 pts
Q1 5:08 False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UTSA +0.8 pts
Q1 5:08 False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UTSA +0.4 pts
Q1 5:08 False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CSU +0.4 pts
Q2 11:42 Pass Interference on Colorado State, 6 yards 0% CSU +0.5 pts
Q2 11:42 Offside on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UTSA +2.1 pts
Q2 6:48 Illegal Shift on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CSU +0.2 pts
Q3 15:00 Face Mask on UTSA, 15 yards 0% UTSA +0.3 pts
Q3 11:27 False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UTSA +1.3 pts
Q4 14:08 Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards +4% UTSA +3.0 pts
Q4 8:55 Unnecessary Roughness on UTSA, 15 yards +1% CSU +0.9 pts
Q4 1:53 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UTSA, 15 yards 0% CSU +1.6 pts
Q4 1:53 False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTSA +0.7 pts

When it happened

UTSA’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UTSA was ahead in it, below while Colorado State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:42 UTSA was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% CSU UTSA: Missed field goal
2 Q1 13:25 M. Petro missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him +3% CSU UTSA: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:52 UTSA converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% UTSA UTSA: Touchdown
4 Q1 9:03 Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedColorado State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CSU CSU: Punt
5 Q1 5:12 UTSA converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +3% UTSA UTSA: Touchdown
6 Q3 11:27 Colorado State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedColorado State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedColorado State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedColorado State converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedFalse Start on Colorado State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% CSU CSU: Touchdown
7 Q3 4:06 Colorado State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +3% CSU CSU: Touchdown
8 Q4 11:19 Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedColorado State converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +3% CSU CSU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colorado State 4% · UTSA 96%

Final margin
UTSA by 14
Luck in points
0.9 for UTSA
Luck-adjusted margin
UTSA by 13.1
Replay with same day's form
Colorado State 4% · UTSA 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Colorado State · UTSA

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