Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Louisiana at Charlotte, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Louisiana beat Charlotte 34–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Louisiana wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Louisiana was a 73% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:24 left): Return touchdown by Charlotte, worth 22 points of win probability to Charlotte.
Final
 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 34 |
|---|---|
 Charlotte 49ers | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Louisiana about even · −10 Charlotte
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Louisiana wins 9, Charlotte wins 1.
- 1 UL 30 CLT 0
- 2 UL 26 CLT 3
- 3 UL 20 CLT 0
- 4 UL 17 CLT 0
- 5 UL 17 CLT 3
- 6 UL 15 CLT 3
- 7 UL 9 CLT 0
- 8 UL 9 CLT 3
- 9 UL 10 CLT 7
- 10 UL 7 CLT 13
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Louisiana wins 90% of them, Charlotte 10%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana by 27.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Louisiana by 17+ | 39.8% |
| Louisiana by 9–16 | 27.3% |
| Louisiana by 1–8 | 22.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Charlotte by 1–8 | 7.5% |
| Charlotte by 9–16 | 2.0% |
| Charlotte by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Sterner, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- T. Sterner, 44 yds made · 66% expected
Penalties: Louisiana 6 for 50 yards, Charlotte 9 for 83 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:13 | False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UL +0.5 pts |
| Q1 11:13 | Kick Catch Interference on Charlotte, 15 yards | +1% UL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 4:50 | Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards | +1% UL +0.6 pts |
| Q1 3:24 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 12:50 | False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLT +0.4 pts |
| Q2 11:31 | Illegal Motion on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 10:59 | Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards | +1% UL +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:06 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards | +3% CLT +1.7 pts |
| Q2 6:52 | Roughing the Passer on Charlotte, 8 yards | +4% UL +2.3 pts |
| Q2 5:22 | Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards | +2% UL +1.5 pts |
| Q2 2:46 | Face Mask on Charlotte, 15 yards | +2% UL +1.6 pts |
| Q2 2:29 | Offside on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:22 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% CLT +2.1 pts |
| Q2 0:45 | Delay of Game on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLT +0.8 pts |
| Q4 7:28 | Roughing the Passer on Louisiana, 15 yards | 0% CLT +3.9 pts |
When it happened
Charlotte’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:50 | Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedFalse Start on Louisiana, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% CLT | UL: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 9:06 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% CLT | CLT: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 8:29 | Louisiana converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedLouisiana fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% UL | UL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 6:52 | Roughing the Passer on Charlotte, 8 yardsJudgment calls | +4% UL | UL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 2:22 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% CLT | CLT: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 0:24 | Louisiana fumbled and Charlotte recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by CharlotteSpecial teams | +22% CLT | UL: End of half |
| 7 | Q3 11:26 | Louisiana converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% UL | UL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 8:34 | Charlotte fumbled and Louisiana recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% UL | CLT: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Louisiana 99% · Charlotte 1%
- Final margin
- Louisiana by 27
- Luck in points
- 12.6 for Louisiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisiana by 14.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Louisiana 90% · Charlotte 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Louisiana · 
Charlotte
More from Week 4 2026
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- App State at NC State NCSU 41–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Tulane TULN 24–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Arkansas State ARST 17–14 · replay 56% for the winner
- Rice at Fresno State FRES 38–24 · replay 59% for the winner
- South Florida at Bowling Green USF 14–6 · replay 68% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe FAU 45–17 · replay 70% for the winner
- Troy at Utah State USU 21–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Georgia State GAST 35–14 · replay 80% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Marshall MRSH 36–35 · replay 81% for the winner
- James Madison at Old Dominion JMU 46–20 · replay 93% for the winner