Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
James Madison at Old Dominion, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
James Madison beat Old Dominion 46–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, James Madison wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff James Madison was a 68% favorite.
Final
 James Madison Dukes | 46 |
|---|---|
 Old Dominion Monarchs | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 James Madison about even · −7 Old Dominion
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. James Madison wins 9, Old Dominion wins 1.
- 1 JMU 54 ODU 3
- 2 JMU 54 ODU 14
- 3 JMU 50 ODU 16
- 4 JMU 45 ODU 16
- 5 JMU 48 ODU 23
- 6 JMU 38 ODU 17
- 7 JMU 23 ODU 6
- 8 JMU 36 ODU 23
- 9 JMU 33 ODU 27
- 10 JMU 31 ODU 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
James Madison wins 93% of them, Old Dominion 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: James Madison by 26.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| James Madison by 17+ | 71.0% |
| James Madison by 9–16 | 12.6% |
| James Madison by 1–8 | 9.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| Old Dominion by 1–8 | 4.0% |
| Old Dominion by 9–16 | 1.3% |
| Old Dominion by 17+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Suarez, 28 yds made · 90% expected
- N. Eichner, 49 yds made · 55% expected
- M. Suarez, 36 yds made · 80% expected
- M. Suarez, 27 yds made · 91% expected
- N. Eichner, 35 yds made · 80% expected
- M. Suarez, 26 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: James Madison 6 for 60 yards, Old Dominion 12 for 86 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JMU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JMU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 14:03 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ODU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 4:05 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards | +2% ODU +1.3 pts |
| Q1 2:26 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards | 0% ODU +0.2 pts |
| Q2 11:36 | Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards | 0% JMU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:22 | False Start on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:52 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ODU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Illegal Substitution on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JMU +3.1 pts |
| Q3 10:09 | False Start on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JMU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 7:08 | Face Mask on Old Dominion, 4 yards | 0% JMU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 7:08 | Holding on Old Dominion, 2 yards, wiping out the play | +1% JMU +1.5 pts |
| Q3 4:58 | Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards | 0% JMU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:06 | Roughing the Passer on James Madison, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +2% ODU +6.3 pts |
| Q4 14:08 | Unnecessary Roughness on Old Dominion, 15 yards | 0% JMU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 14:08 | Pass Interference on Old Dominion, 15 yards | +1% JMU +2.3 pts |
| Q4 8:49 | Ineligible Downfield on Old Dominion, 5 yards | 0% JMU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 0:00 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards | 0% ODU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Old Dominion’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Old Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedFalse Start on Old Dominion, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Old Dominion, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% JMU | ODU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:04 | Old Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedJames Madison converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +2% ODU | ODU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 4:05 | James Madison was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedHolding on James Madison, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% ODU | JMU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 2:26 | Old Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedM. Suarez made a 28-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for himPass Interference on James Madison, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% JMU | ODU: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 0:16 | Old Dominion was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +3% JMU | ODU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 15:00 | James Madison converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +2% JMU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 14:06 | James Madison converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedJames Madison was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +3% JMU | JMU: End of half |
| 8 | Q3 10:09 | Old Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedM. Suarez made a 36-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for himFalse Start on Old Dominion, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% JMU | ODU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
James Madison 99% · Old Dominion 1%
- Final margin
- James Madison by 26
- Luck in points
- 9.9 for James Madison
- Luck-adjusted margin
- James Madison by 16.1
- Replay with same day's form
- James Madison 93% · Old Dominion 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
James Madison · 
Old Dominion
More from Week 4 2026
- App State at NC State NCSU 41–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Tulane TULN 24–21 · replay 55% for the winner
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- Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe FAU 45–17 · replay 70% for the winner
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- Northern Illinois at Georgia State GAST 35–14 · replay 80% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Marshall MRSH 36–35 · replay 81% for the winner
- Louisiana at Charlotte UL 34–7 · replay 90% for the winner
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- South Alabama at Kentucky UK 45–21 · replay 100% for the winner
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