Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
South Alabama at Kentucky, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Kentucky beat South Alabama 45–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kentucky wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Kentucky was a 91% favorite.
Final
 South Alabama Jaguars | 21 |
|---|---|
 Kentucky Wildcats | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Kentucky about even · 0 South Alabama
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Alabama wins 0, Kentucky wins 10.
- 1 USA 24 UK 39
- 2 USA 17 UK 41
- 3 USA 13 UK 42
- 4 USA 23 UK 57
- 5 USA 17 UK 55
- 6 USA 3 UK 45
- 7 USA 13 UK 58
- 8 USA 3 UK 52
- 9 USA 6 UK 62
- 10 USA 3 UK 66
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
South Alabama wins 0% of them, Kentucky 100%. The line is what actually happened: Kentucky by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Alabama by 17+ | 0.0% |
| South Alabama by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| South Alabama by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Kentucky by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Kentucky by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| Kentucky by 17+ | 97.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Zouagui, 34 yds made · 82% expected
- D. Little, 50 yds missed · 53% expected
- J. Kauwe, 48 yds missed · 59% expected
Penalties: South Alabama 6 for 50 yards, Kentucky 2 for 22 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:35 | Personal Foul on South Alabama, 15 yards | +1% UK +1.6 pts |
| Q1 7:18 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UK +0.9 pts |
| Q1 0:27 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USA +0.1 pts |
| Q2 14:34 | Personal Foul on Kentucky, 7 yards | +1% USA +1.2 pts |
| Q2 4:20 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards | +1% UK +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:17 | Personal Foul on Kentucky, 15 yards | 0% USA +1.9 pts |
| Q2 1:30 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards | +3% UK +1.3 pts |
| Q2 0:24 | Offside on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Kentucky’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:56 | Kentucky was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +3% USA | UK: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 0:37 | Kentucky converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +2% UK | UK: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 11:57 | Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +2% USA | UK: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 11:19 | Kentucky was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +3% USA | UK: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 3:23 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +5% USA | USA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 1:30 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% UK | UK: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 2:15 | South Alabama converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +3% USA | USA: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q3 1:07 | D. Little missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +2% UK | USA: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Alabama 0% · Kentucky 100%
- Final margin
- Kentucky by 24
- Luck in points
- 6.3 for South Alabama
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kentucky by 30.3
- Replay with same day's form
- South Alabama 0% · Kentucky 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
South Alabama · 
Kentucky
More from Week 4 2026
- App State at NC State NCSU 41–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Tulane TULN 24–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Arkansas State ARST 17–14 · replay 56% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at Auburn AUB 21–15 · replay 67% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe FAU 45–17 · replay 70% for the winner
- Troy at Utah State USU 21–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Texas at Tennessee TEX 20–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Georgia State GAST 35–14 · replay 80% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Marshall MRSH 36–35 · replay 81% for the winner
- Louisiana at Charlotte UL 34–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Florida FLA 52–28 · replay 93% for the winner
- James Madison at Old Dominion JMU 46–20 · replay 93% for the winner