Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Ole Miss at Florida, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Florida beat Ole Miss 52–28, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida wins 9 of 10.
An off day for Ole Miss: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Florida it would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff Florida was a 60% favorite.
Final
 Ole Miss Rebels | 28 |
|---|---|
 Florida Gators | 52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Florida about even · −7 Ole Miss
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ole Miss wins 1, Florida wins 9.
- 1 MISS 51 FLA 42
- 2 MISS 37 FLA 41
- 3 MISS 24 FLA 35
- 4 MISS 30 FLA 45
- 5 MISS 28 FLA 47
- 6 MISS 27 FLA 51
- 7 MISS 24 FLA 52
- 8 MISS 17 FLA 49
- 9 MISS 7 FLA 45
- 10 MISS 21 FLA 68
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Ole Miss
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Florida it would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
34 points apart for Ole Miss: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss offenseEPA per play gained | +0.28 | +0.15 | better by 0.13 |
| Ole Miss defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.19 | +0.06 | worse by 0.13 |
| Florida offenseEPA per play gained | +0.19 | +0.09 | better by 0.11 |
| Florida defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.28 | +0.09 | worse by 0.19 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ole Miss wins 7% of them, Florida 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ole Miss by 17+ | 0.8% |
| Ole Miss by 9–16 | 1.3% |
| Ole Miss by 1–8 | 5.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Florida by 1–8 | 10.5% |
| Florida by 9–16 | 15.7% |
| Florida by 17+ | 65.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- P. Durkin, 49 yds made · 57% expected
- L. Carneiro, 36 yds made · 74% expected
- L. Carneiro, 46 yds made · 57% expected
Penalties: Ole Miss 6 for 49 yards, Florida 8 for 92 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:59 | False Start on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FLA +0.8 pts |
| Q1 0:18 | False Start on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 12:50 | Holding on Florida, 10 yards | +1% MISS +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:50 | Delay of Game on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MISS +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:34 | Kick Catch Interference on Florida, 15 yards | +2% MISS +0.9 pts |
| Q2 12:24 | Face Mask on Florida, 15 yards | +3% MISS +1.6 pts |
| Q2 3:44 | Targeting on Ole Miss, 5 yards | +2% FLA +1.0 pts |
| Q3 8:47 | Holding on Florida, 10 yards | +2% MISS +0.8 pts |
| Q3 2:57 | Unnecessary Roughness on Florida, 15 yards | +3% MISS +1.6 pts |
| Q4 12:15 | Pass Interference on Florida, 12 yards | +2% MISS +1.5 pts |
| Q4 11:28 | Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 15 yards | +2% FLA +1.4 pts |
| Q4 8:59 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Ole Miss, 14 yards | 0% FLA +1.1 pts |
| Q4 8:56 | Delay of Game on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:42 | Holding on Florida, 10 yards | 0% MISS +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Florida’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:00 | P. Durkin made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +3% FLA | FLA: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 0:45 | Florida was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +3% MISS | FLA: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 12:50 | Florida converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expectedHolding on Florida, 10 yardsJudgment callsDelay of Game on Florida, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% MISS | FLA: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 12:24 | Face Mask on Florida, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% MISS | MISS: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 13:03 | Ole Miss’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +3% MISS | MISS: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 10:33 | Ole Miss converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +3% MISS | MISS: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 2:57 | Unnecessary Roughness on Florida, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% MISS | MISS: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 2:47 | Ole Miss fumbled and Florida recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% FLA | MISS: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ole Miss 0% · Florida 100%
- Final margin
- Florida by 24
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for Florida
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida by 20.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Ole Miss 7% · Florida 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Ole Miss · 
Florida
More from Week 4 2026
- Vanderbilt at Auburn AUB 21–15 · replay 67% for the winner
- Texas at Tennessee TEX 20–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Missouri at Mississippi State MSST 31–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- South Carolina at Alabama ALA 49–18 · replay 96% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Georgia UGA 41–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Tulsa at Arkansas ARK 34–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- South Alabama at Kentucky UK 45–21 · replay 100% for the winner
- Texas A&M at LSU LSU 35–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner