Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Texas A&M at LSU, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
LSU beat Texas A&M 35–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, LSU wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff LSU was a 71% favorite.
Final
 Texas A&M Aggies | 6 |
|---|---|
 LSU Tigers | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 LSU about even · 0 Texas A&M
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas A&M wins 0, LSU wins 10.
- 1 TA&M 6 LSU 28
- 2 TA&M 10 LSU 39
- 3 TA&M 10 LSU 45
- 4 TA&M 7 LSU 45
- 5 TA&M 3 LSU 45
- 6 TA&M 7 LSU 52
- 7 TA&M 6 LSU 55
- 8 TA&M 0 LSU 52
- 9 TA&M 13 LSU 70
- 10 TA&M 0 LSU 67
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas A&M wins 0% of them, LSU 100%. The line is what actually happened: LSU by 29.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas A&M by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Texas A&M by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Texas A&M by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| LSU by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| LSU by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| LSU by 17+ | 97.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Olano, 24 yds made · 92% expected
- D. Olano, 53 yds made · 49% expected
- S. Starzyk, 24 yds missed · 92% expected
Penalties: Texas A&M 6 for 42 yards, LSU 5 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:33 | Ineligible Downfield on Texas A&M, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% LSU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 6:04 | Delay of Game on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TA&M +1.3 pts |
| Q1 0:42 | False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:27 | Delay of Game on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TA&M +0.3 pts |
| Q2 5:28 | Pass Interference on Texas A&M, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% LSU +2.7 pts |
| Q2 3:20 | Holding on LSU, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% TA&M +1.8 pts |
| Q2 0:39 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards | +2% LSU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 7:28 | Ineligible Downfield on LSU, 5 yards | 0% TA&M +0.8 pts |
| Q3 6:45 | Disconcerting Signals on Texas A&M, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% LSU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 0:42 | Pass Interference on Texas A&M, 8 yards | 0% LSU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 4:33 | Holding on LSU, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% TA&M +2.1 pts |
When it happened
LSU’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:12 | LSU was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +3% TA&M | LSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:38 | Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +2% LSU | TA&M: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 10:26 | LSU converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +2% LSU | LSU: End of half |
| 4 | Q1 2:01 | LSU was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +2% TA&M | LSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 5:28 | Pass Interference on Texas A&M, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% LSU | LSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 3:20 | Holding on LSU, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% TA&M | TA&M: End of half |
| 7 | Q2 1:12 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +2% TA&M | TA&M: End of half |
| 8 | Q3 15:00 | Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +2% LSU | TA&M: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas A&M 0% · LSU 100%
- Final margin
- LSU by 29
- Luck in points
- 3.9 for Texas A&M
- Luck-adjusted margin
- LSU by 32.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas A&M 0% · LSU 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Texas A&M · 
LSU
More from Week 4 2026
- Vanderbilt at Auburn AUB 21–15 · replay 67% for the winner
- Texas at Tennessee TEX 20–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Florida FLA 52–28 · replay 93% for the winner
- Missouri at Mississippi State MSST 31–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- South Carolina at Alabama ALA 49–18 · replay 96% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Georgia UGA 41–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Tulsa at Arkansas ARK 34–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- South Alabama at Kentucky UK 45–21 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner