Week 4 2026 · September 25, 2026
Howard at Rutgers, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Rutgers beat Howard 58–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Rutgers wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Rutgers was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Howard Bison | 7 |
|---|---|
 Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 58 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Rutgers about even · 0 Howard
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Howard wins 0, Rutgers wins 10.
- 1 HOW 35 RUTG 52
- 2 HOW 14 RUTG 40
- 3 HOW 14 RUTG 45
- 4 HOW 14 RUTG 48
- 5 HOW 7 RUTG 45
- 6 HOW 7 RUTG 50
- 7 HOW 14 RUTG 60
- 8 HOW 7 RUTG 56
- 9 HOW 0 RUTG 55
- 10 HOW 0 RUTG 65
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Howard wins 0% of them, Rutgers 100%. The line is what actually happened: Rutgers by 51.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Howard by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Howard by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Howard by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Rutgers by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Rutgers by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| Rutgers by 17+ | 99.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Pizzaro, 29 yds made · 87% expected
- D. Pizzaro, 47 yds made · 59% expected
- D. Pizzaro, 40 yds made · 73% expected
Penalties: Howard 9 for 100 yards, Rutgers 1 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:27 | Pass Interference on Howard, 15 yards | 0% RUTG +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:18 | False Start on Howard, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RUTG +0.2 pts |
| Q3 10:57 | Pass Interference on Howard, 15 yards | 0% RUTG +1.3 pts |
| Q3 4:00 | Kick Catch Interference on Howard, 15 yards | 0% RUTG +0.9 pts |
| Q3 1:51 | Holding on Howard, 10 yards | 0% RUTG +1.2 pts |
| Q3 0:07 | Holding on Howard, 10 yards | 0% RUTG +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:50 | Pass Interference on Howard, 15 yards | 0% RUTG +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:00 | Holding on Howard, 10 yards | 0% RUTG +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:51 | Delay of Game on Howard, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RUTG +1.1 pts |
| Q4 1:15 | Holding on Rutgers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% HOW +1.7 pts |
When it happened
Rutgers’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:22 | Rutgers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +0% RUTG | RUTG: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:25 | Howard converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +0% HOW | HOW: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 9:15 | Howard converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +0% HOW | HOW: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 8:09 | Howard fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% HOW | HOW: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 7:20 | Howard was stopped on 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 15% expected | +0% RUTG | HOW: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 1:51 | Holding on Howard, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% RUTG | RUTG: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 0:07 | Howard was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedHolding on Howard, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% RUTG | HOW: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 10:00 | Holding on Howard, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% RUTG | RUTG: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Howard 0% · Rutgers 100%
- Final margin
- Rutgers by 51
- Luck in points
- 7.4 for Rutgers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rutgers by 43.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Howard 0% · Rutgers 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Howard · 
Rutgers
More from Week 4 2026
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner
- Minnesota at Washington MINN 27–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- Nebraska at Michigan State NEB 31–13 · replay 48% for the winner
- Oregon at USC ORE 41–27 · replay 53% for the winner
- UCLA at Maryland UCLA 54–3 · replay 72% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Penn State WIS 24–20 · replay 79% for the winner
- Northwestern at Indiana IU 29–23 · replay 91% for the winner
- Illinois at Ohio State OSU 42–19 · replay 97% for the winner
- North Carolina Central at East Carolina ECU 42–9 · replay 98% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Purdue ND 49–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner