Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Nebraska at Michigan State, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Nebraska beat Michigan State 31–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Nebraska wins 5 of 10.
Before kickoff Nebraska was a 65% favorite.
Final
 Nebraska Cornhuskers | 31 |
|---|---|
 Michigan State Spartans | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Nebraska lucky · −52 Michigan State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Nebraska wins 5, Michigan State wins 5.
- 1 NEB 35 MSU 7
- 2 NEB 24 MSU 6
- 3 NEB 23 MSU 10
- 4 NEB 30 MSU 24
- 5 NEB 27 MSU 24
- 6 NEB 17 MSU 20
- 7 NEB 17 MSU 23
- 8 NEB 14 MSU 23
- 9 NEB 10 MSU 26
- 10 NEB 7 MSU 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Nebraska wins 48% of them, Michigan State 52%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Nebraska by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Nebraska by 17+ | 11.7% |
| Nebraska by 9–16 | 14.6% |
| Nebraska by 1–8 | 21.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Michigan State by 1–8 | 20.7% |
| Michigan State by 9–16 | 16.2% |
| Michigan State by 17+ | 13.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Boyd, 48 yds made · 60% expected
- K. Cunanan, 32 yds made · 85% expected
- L. Boyd, 46 yds made · 63% expected
- L. Boyd, 52 yds blocked · 53% expected
Penalties: Nebraska 6 for 45 yards, Michigan State 5 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:14 | Pass Interference on Nebraska, 10 yards | +3% MSU +1.7 pts |
| Q1 9:41 | Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards | 0% MSU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:04 | Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards | +8% NEB +3.5 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Personal Foul on Michigan State, 15 yards | +3% NEB +1.6 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 6:00 | Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards | +1% MSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 6:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Michigan State, 15 yards | +3% NEB +1.6 pts |
| Q2 6:00 | False Start on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:43 | Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards | 0% NEB +1.4 pts |
| Q3 8:43 | Illegal Substitution on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MSU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 9:59 | Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards | 0% NEB +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Michigan State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:10 | Nebraska was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +3% MSU | NEB: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:14 | Pass Interference on Nebraska, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% MSU | MSU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 3:04 | Holding on Michigan State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +8% NEB | NEB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 10:00 | Michigan State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedK. Cunanan made a 32-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him | +3% MSU | MSU: End of half |
| 5 | Q2 2:00 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +3% NEB | NEB: End of half |
| 6 | Q3 7:23 | Michigan State fumbled and Nebraska recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% NEB | MSU: End of half |
| 7 | Q3 5:56 | Nebraska was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +3% MSU | NEB: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 1:27 | L. Boyd had a 52-yard field goal blockedKicks · 53% expected for him, 4 of 4 from 45+ before | +3% NEB | MSU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Nebraska 100% · Michigan State 0%
- Final margin
- Nebraska by 18
- Luck in points
- 4.0 for Michigan State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Nebraska by 22.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Nebraska 48% · Michigan State 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Nebraska · 
Michigan State
More from Week 4 2026
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner
- Minnesota at Washington MINN 27–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- Oregon at USC ORE 41–27 · replay 53% for the winner
- UCLA at Maryland UCLA 54–3 · replay 72% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Penn State WIS 24–20 · replay 79% for the winner
- Northwestern at Indiana IU 29–23 · replay 91% for the winner
- Illinois at Ohio State OSU 42–19 · replay 97% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Purdue ND 49–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Howard at Rutgers RUTG 58–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner