luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

TCU at UCF, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

UCF beat TCU 21–13, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10. TCU had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to TCU.

Before kickoff TCU was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:07 left): N. McCashland missed a 50-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to UCF.

Final

TCU Horned Frogs 13
UCF Knights 21

September 26, 2026 · FBC Mortgage Stadium · Closing line: TCU −3.5

Luck index +23 UCF about even · −23 TCU

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. TCU wins 2, UCF wins 8.

  1. 1 TCU 21 UCF 7
  2. 2 TCU 13 UCF 10
  3. 3 TCU 21 UCF 23
  4. 4 TCU 13 UCF 17
  5. 5 TCU 17 UCF 24
  6. 6 TCU 3 UCF 13
  7. 7 TCU 14 UCF 27
  8. 8 TCU 14 UCF 31
  9. 9 TCU 10 UCF 31
  10. 10 TCU 0 UCF 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

TCU wins 23% of them, UCF 77%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UCF by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
TCU by 17+2.6%
TCU by 9–167.0%
TCU by 1–812.4%
Level after regulation3.8%
UCF by 1–823.1%
UCF by 9–1621.0%
UCF by 17+30.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.0 points to TCU: the final margin was UCF by 8, without the luck UCF by 12. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. McCashland, 29 yds made · 87% expected
  • N. McCashland, 45 yds made · 62% expected
  • N. McCashland, 50 yds missed · 54% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: TCU 11 for 86 yards, UCF 4 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offside on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TCU +0.3 pts
Q1 14:05 Pass Interference on UCF, 10 yards +1% TCU +1.4 pts
Q2 14:26 Illegal Snap on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UCF +1.0 pts
Q2 13:55 Face Mask on TCU, 15 yards +4% UCF +1.6 pts
Q2 9:43 False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UCF +0.6 pts
Q2 6:38 Personal Foul on TCU, 14 yards +4% UCF +1.6 pts
Q3 6:35 False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UCF +0.8 pts
Q3 6:06 Holding on TCU, 10 yards +4% UCF +1.1 pts
Q3 3:19 Holding on TCU, 10 yards +5% UCF +1.3 pts
Q4 15:00 Offside on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UCF +0.5 pts
Q4 13:35 Pass Interference on TCU, 9 yards +7% UCF +1.8 pts
Q4 13:24 Unnecessary Roughness on TCU, 3 yards +4% UCF +0.9 pts
Q4 10:08 Roughing the Passer on UCF, 15 yards +6% TCU +1.6 pts
Q4 8:26 False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% UCF +0.9 pts
Q4 7:56 Unnecessary Roughness on UCF, 15 yards +3% TCU +1.4 pts

When it happened

UCF’s chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UCF was ahead in it, below while TCU was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:36 TCU converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% TCU TCU: Punt
2 Q2 11:43 UCF was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +5% TCU UCF: Touchdown
3 Q2 4:58 UCF converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +8% UCF UCF: Turnover
4 Q3 9:39 TCU converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% TCU TCU: Field goal
5 Q4 13:35 Pass Interference on TCU, 9 yardsJudgment calls +7% UCF UCF: Touchdown
6 Q4 10:08 Roughing the Passer on UCF, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% TCU TCU: Missed field goal
7 Q4 8:07 TCU was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedN. McCashland missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before +10% UCF TCU: Missed field goal
8 Q4 4:43 TCU converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% TCU TCU: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

TCU 3% · UCF 97%

Final margin
UCF by 8
Luck in points
4.0 for TCU
Luck-adjusted margin
UCF by 12.0
Replay with same day's form
TCU 23% · UCF 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · TCU · UCF

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