Sam Houston at Texas Tech, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Final

Sam Houston Bearkats	14
Texas Tech Red Raiders	49

September 26, 2026 · Jones AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Texas Tech −34.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index 0 Texas Tech about even · 0 Sam Houston

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Sam Houston wins 0, Texas Tech wins 10.

1 SHSU 14 TTU 26
2 SHSU 13 TTU 34
3 SHSU 17 TTU 43
4 SHSU 17 TTU 48
5 SHSU 3 TTU 38
6 SHSU 17 TTU 56
7 SHSU 5 TTU 49
8 SHSU 3 TTU 51
9 SHSU 20 TTU 76
10 SHSU 13 TTU 77

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Sam Houston wins 0% of them, Texas Tech 100%. The line is what actually happened: Texas Tech by 35.

Actual: Texas Tech by 35 494235282114707142128354249 ← Sam Houston win by Texas Tech win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Sam Houston by 17+	0.0%
Sam Houston by 9–16	0.1%
Sam Houston by 1–8	0.1%
Level after regulation	0.1%
Texas Tech by 1–8	1.0%
Texas Tech by 9–16	2.1%
Texas Tech by 17+	96.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.5 points to Texas Tech: the final margin was Texas Tech by 35, without the luck Texas Tech by 28.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Sam Houston 7 for 55 yards, Texas Tech 6 for 47 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 6:53	False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% SHSU +0.7 pts
Q1 3:26	Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 10 yards, wiping out the play	0% TTU +1.7 pts
Q2 9:37	False Start on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% TTU +0.9 pts
Q2 9:12	False Start on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% TTU +0.4 pts
Q2 8:51	Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 10 yards, wiping out the play	0% TTU +1.8 pts
Q2 3:05	Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas Tech, 2 yards	0% SHSU +0.1 pts
Q2 2:00	False Start on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% TTU +0.9 pts
Q3 10:00	False Start on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% TTU +1.3 pts
Q3 3:39	Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards	0% SHSU +1.4 pts
Q3 3:22	False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% SHSU 0.0 pts
Q4 12:00	Face Mask on Sam Houston, 15 yards	0% TTU +1.6 pts
Q4 5:44	Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play	0% SHSU +3.1 pts
Q4 5:14	Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas Tech, 15 yards	0% SHSU +1.5 pts

When it happened

Texas Tech’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Texas Tech 50% Sam Houston Q1Q2Q3Q4 234678

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Texas Tech was ahead in it, below while Sam Houston was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 12:32	Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected	+0% TTU	SHSU: Punt
2	Q1 11:31	Texas Tech was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected	+0% SHSU	TTU: Punt
3	Q1 8:27	S. Carpenter missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before	+0% TTU	SHSU: Punt
4	Q1 3:26	Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls	+0% TTU	TTU: Punt
5	Q1 1:09	Texas Tech was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected	+0% SHSU	TTU: Punt
6	Q2 14:54	Return touchdown by Texas TechSpecial teams	+1% TTU	TTU: Punt
7	Q2 8:51	Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls	+0% TTU	TTU: Turnover
8	Q2 1:11	Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 17% expected	+0% TTU	SHSU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Sam Houston 0% · Texas Tech 100%

Final margin: Texas Tech by 35
Luck in points: 6.5 for Texas Tech
Luck-adjusted margin: Texas Tech by 28.5
Replay with same day's form: Sam Houston 0% · Texas Tech 100% unchanged: why

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 50%Fumble bounces 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 0%Pre-snap flags 100%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 3Q1 12:32
Texas Tech was stopped on 3rd & 1Q1 11:31
S. Carpenter missed a 48-yard field goalQ1 8:27
Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 10 yards, wiping out the playQ1 3:26
Texas Tech was stopped on 3rd & 1Q1 1:09
Return touchdown by Texas TechQ2 14:54
Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 10 yards, wiping out the playQ2 8:51
Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 12Q2 1:11

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Sam Houston · Texas Tech

More from Week 4 2026

Kennesaw State at Arkansas State ARST 17–14 · replay 56% for the winner
Long Island University at Florida International FIU 20–3 · replay 72% for the winner
Arizona at Washington State ARIZ 34–24 · replay 73% for the winner
TCU at UCF UCF 21–13 · replay 77% for the winner
Colorado at Baylor BAY 23–13 · replay 81% for the winner
Kansas State at Cincinnati CIN 31–26 · replay 83% for the winner
Oklahoma State at West Virginia OKST 41–24 · replay 91% for the winner
New Mexico at New Mexico State UNM 42–18 · replay 95% for the winner
Liberty at Coastal Carolina LIB 34–17 · replay 96% for the winner
Utah at Iowa State UTAH 31–17 · replay 96% for the winner
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State JXST 23–13 · replay 98% for the winner
Houston at Georgia Southern HOU 42–28 · replay 98% for the winner

Every week 4 game, 2026