Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Lindenwood at Eastern Michigan, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Eastern Michigan beat Lindenwood 29–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Eastern Michigan wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Eastern Michigan was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Lindenwood Lions | 3 |
|---|---|
 Eastern Michigan Eagles | 29 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Eastern Michigan about even · −2 Lindenwood
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lindenwood wins 0, Eastern Michigan wins 10.
- 1 LIN 3 EMU 7
- 2 LIN 13 EMU 21
- 3 LIN 6 EMU 17
- 4 LIN 0 EMU 14
- 5 LIN 0 EMU 17
- 6 LIN 2 EMU 20
- 7 LIN 0 EMU 21
- 8 LIN 0 EMU 24
- 9 LIN 3 EMU 31
- 10 LIN 0 EMU 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lindenwood wins 2% of them, Eastern Michigan 98%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eastern Michigan by 26.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lindenwood by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Lindenwood by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Lindenwood by 1–8 | 1.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Eastern Michigan by 1–8 | 9.4% |
| Eastern Michigan by 9–16 | 19.4% |
| Eastern Michigan by 17+ | 67.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Kessinger, 51 yds made · 53% expected
- R. Kessinger, 42 yds made · 70% expected
- R. Kessinger, 48 yds missed · 59% expected
- W. Graham, 44 yds made · 61% expected
- R. Kessinger, 28 yds made · 89% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Lindenwood 5 for 55 yards, Eastern Michigan 5 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:12 | Pass Interference on Lindenwood, 15 yards | +1% EMU +2.0 pts |
| Q2 9:14 | Targeting on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards | 0% LIN +1.9 pts |
| Q2 8:10 | Holding on Lindenwood, 10 yards | 0% EMU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:12 | Pass Interference on Lindenwood, 10 yards | 0% EMU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 11:59 | Ineligible Downfield on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% LIN +2.4 pts |
| Q3 8:52 | Roughing the Passer on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards | 0% LIN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 8:29 | Holding on Lindenwood, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% EMU +2.5 pts |
| Q3 5:49 | Holding on Lindenwood, 10 yards | 0% EMU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 1:23 | Offside on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LIN +0.3 pts |
| Q4 3:56 | Pass Interference on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards | 0% LIN +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Eastern Michigan’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:43 | Lindenwood was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +1% EMU | LIN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:27 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +1% EMU | EMU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 10:31 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +1% EMU | EMU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 9:58 | Eastern Michigan missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +0% LIN | EMU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 6:19 | Eastern Michigan converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +0% EMU | EMU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 5:12 | Pass Interference on Lindenwood, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% EMU | EMU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 11:59 | Eastern Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedIneligible Downfield on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% LIN | EMU: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q3 8:29 | Holding on Lindenwood, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% EMU | EMU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lindenwood 2% · Eastern Michigan 98%
- Final margin
- Eastern Michigan by 26
- Luck in points
- 11.8 for Eastern Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eastern Michigan by 14.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Lindenwood 2% · Eastern Michigan 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Lindenwood · 
Eastern Michigan
More from Week 4 2026
- Robert Morris at Buffalo BUF 31–28 · replay 63% for the winner
- South Florida at Bowling Green USF 14–6 · replay 68% for the winner
- UNLV at Akron UNLV 38–10 · replay 71% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Marshall MRSH 36–35 · replay 81% for the winner
- UConn at Miami (OH) M-OH 24–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Ball State at Kent State KENT 26–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Sacramento State MASS 35–6 · replay 94% for the winner
- Boise State at Western Michigan BOIS 32–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- San Diego State at Toledo TOL 41–16 · replay 99% for the winner
- Stonehill at Ohio OHIO 35–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Miami MIA 52–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner