Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl · December 23, 2025
UNLV vs Ohio, Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?
Ohio beat UNLV 17–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ohio wins 8 of 10.
An off day for UNLV: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Ohio it would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%. The numbers
Before kickoff UNLV was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:21 left): Ineligible Downfield on UNLV, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to Ohio.
Final
 UNLV Rebels | 10 |
|---|---|
 Ohio Bobcats | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Ohio about even · −20 UNLV
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UNLV wins 2, Ohio wins 8.
- 1 UNLV 28 OHIO 14
- 2 UNLV 24 OHIO 21
- 3 UNLV 13 OHIO 16
- 4 UNLV 14 OHIO 20
- 5 UNLV 14 OHIO 24
- 6 UNLV 7 OHIO 20
- 7 UNLV 6 OHIO 21
- 8 UNLV 12 OHIO 31
- 9 UNLV 3 OHIO 26
- 10 UNLV 3 OHIO 33
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for UNLV
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Ohio it would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
34 points apart for UNLV: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV offenseEPA per play gained | −0.14 | +0.15 | worse by 0.28 |
| UNLV defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.29 | +0.09 | worse by 0.19 |
| Ohio offenseEPA per play gained | +0.29 | +0.15 | better by 0.13 |
| Ohio defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.14 | +0.00 | better by 0.14 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
UNLV wins 20% of them, Ohio 80%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ohio by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UNLV by 17+ | 1.8% |
| UNLV by 9–16 | 5.1% |
| UNLV by 1–8 | 12.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| Ohio by 1–8 | 22.6% |
| Ohio by 9–16 | 25.7% |
| Ohio by 17+ | 31.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Villela, 50 yds made · 53% expected
- D. Dellenbach, 45 yds made · 61% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: UNLV 5 for 40 yards, Ohio 5 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:28 | Targeting on Ohio, 15 yards | +3% UNLV +1.6 pts |
| Q1 1:21 | Ineligible Downfield on UNLV, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +11% OHIO +5.3 pts |
| Q2 13:12 | Holding on Ohio, 10 yards | +3% UNLV +1.3 pts |
| Q2 11:20 | Offside on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% OHIO +2.6 pts |
| Q2 6:23 | False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% OHIO +0.7 pts |
| Q2 3:45 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UNLV +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:07 | Holding on UNLV, 10 yards | 0% OHIO +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:44 | Delay of Game on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UNLV +0.8 pts |
| Q4 7:44 | Face Mask on Ohio, 15 yards | +2% UNLV +1.2 pts |
| Q4 3:57 | Face Mask on UNLV, 15 yards | +4% OHIO +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Ohio’s chance of winning
As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:23 | UNLV fumbled and Ohio recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% OHIO | UNLV: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 4:28 | Ohio fumbled and UNLV recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% UNLV | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 1:21 | Ineligible Downfield on UNLV, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% OHIO | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 11:20 | Offside on UNLV, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% OHIO | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 7:29 | UNLV converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +4% UNLV | UNLV: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 5:05 | UNLV was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +6% OHIO | UNLV: Turnover |
| 7 | Q3 13:32 | Ohio converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +6% OHIO | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 3:57 | Face Mask on UNLV, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% OHIO | OHIO: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UNLV 12% · Ohio 88%
- Final margin
- Ohio by 7
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for UNLV
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio by 7.7
- Replay with same day's form
- UNLV 20% · Ohio 80% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · 
UNLV · 
Ohio
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