luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl · December 27, 2025

Virginia vs Missouri, TaxSlayer Gator Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

Virginia beat Missouri 13–7, but the replays lean toward Missouri: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 20 points of win probability to Virginia.

Before kickoff Missouri was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:28 left): Virginia was stopped on 4th & 4, worth 9 points of win probability to Missouri.

Final

Virginia Cavaliers 13
Missouri Tigers 7

December 27, 2025 · EverBank Stadium · Closing line: Missouri −4

Luck index +78 Virginia very lucky · −78 Missouri

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Virginia wins 2, Missouri wins 8.

  1. 1 UVA 20 MIZ 10
  2. 2 UVA 17 MIZ 14
  3. 3 UVA 7 MIZ 10
  4. 4 UVA 9 MIZ 13
  5. 5 UVA 7 MIZ 14
  6. 6 UVA 7 MIZ 17
  7. 7 UVA 10 MIZ 23
  8. 8 UVA 7 MIZ 23
  9. 9 UVA 0 MIZ 19
  10. 10 UVA 3 MIZ 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Virginia wins 22% of them, Missouri 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Virginia by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Virginia by 17+1.7%
Virginia by 9–166.6%
Virginia by 1–813.6%
Level after regulation1.9%
Missouri by 1–830.7%
Missouri by 9–1622.2%
Missouri by 17+23.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +16.6 points to Virginia: the final margin was Virginia by 6, without the luck Missouri by 10.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • W. Bettridge, 42 yds made · 71% expected
  • W. Bettridge, 44 yds missed · 67% expected
  • O. Robbins, 42 yds missed · 69% expected
  • W. Bettridge, 39 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Virginia 4 for 41 yards, Missouri 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:45 False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIZ +1.5 pts
Q2 13:33 Intentional Grounding on Virginia, 11 yards +1% MIZ +0.7 pts
Q2 9:01 Pass Interference on Virginia, 15 yards +4% MIZ +2.1 pts
Q2 6:51 Illegal Substitution on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UVA +0.7 pts
Q2 0:13 Holding on Missouri, 10 yards +1% UVA +1.1 pts
Q4 12:16 Holding on Virginia, 10 yards +2% MIZ +0.7 pts
Q4 9:04 False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% UVA +1.0 pts
Q4 3:05 False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% UVA +1.1 pts

When it happened

Missouri’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Missouri was ahead in it, below while Virginia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 14:09 Virginia converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% UVA UVA: Touchdown
2 Q3 11:46 Virginia converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +6% UVA UVA: Touchdown
3 Q3 9:05 Virginia converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +9% UVA UVA: Touchdown
4 Q3 5:10 Virginia converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +9% MIZ UVA: Touchdown
5 Q4 13:28 Virginia converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% UVA UVA: Punt
6 Q4 4:28 Virginia was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% MIZ UVA: Punt
7 Q4 3:05 False Start on Missouri, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% UVA UVA: Punt
8 Q4 1:57 Missouri was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +6% UVA MIZ: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Virginia 8% · Missouri 92%

Final margin
Virginia by 6
Luck in points
16.6 for Virginia
Luck-adjusted margin
Missouri by 10.6
Replay with same day's form
Virginia 22% · Missouri 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · Virginia · Missouri

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