luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

College football · Week 8 2026 · Saturday, October 24

Eastern Michigan vs Ohio prediction and pick

Our Eastern Michigan Eagles at Ohio Bobcats pick: Ohio by 14.8, 82% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.

An early look, 4 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.

Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.6, so about 53% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.

Eastern Michigan at Ohio

Sat, Oct 24, time to be announced · Peden Stadium

Ohio by 14.8 · 82% to win

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Eastern Michigan win18.4%
Ohio win81.6%
Middle 50%: Ohio by 3 to Ohio by 2650%
Middle 90%: Eastern Michigan by 13 to Ohio by 4290%
Middle 95%: Eastern Michigan by 18 to Ohio by 4895%
Exactly Ohio by 35.2%
Exactly Ohio by 74.8%
Exactly Ohio by 144.3%
Exactly Ohio by 174.1%
Exactly Ohio by 214.0%
P50
Half of games like this end between Ohio by 3 and Ohio by 26.
P90
9 in 10 between Eastern Michigan by 13 and Ohio by 42.
P95
19 in 20 between Eastern Michigan by 18 and Ohio by 48.
Where the forecast comes from
This season, against its opponentsOhio+9.5
Home fieldOhio+3.1
Last seasonOhio+2.1

The season so far

TeamRecordCoin-flip winsLuck in wins
Eastern Michigan 2–3 2.5 −0.3
Ohio 2–2 1.9 +0.3

Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.

Eastern Michigan vs Ohio: questions and answers

Who will win Eastern Michigan vs Ohio?

Our forecast picks Ohio, with 82% to win; Eastern Michigan win 18% of the time.

What’s the spread for Eastern Michigan vs Ohio?

Our spread: Ohio −14.8. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.

When is Eastern Michigan vs Ohio?

Saturday, October 24, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Peden Stadium.