Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Ohio at Ohio State, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Ohio State beat Ohio 37–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ohio State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Ohio State was a 97% favorite.
Final
 Ohio Bobcats | 9 |
|---|---|
 Ohio State Buckeyes | 37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Ohio State about even · 0 Ohio
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ohio wins 0, Ohio State wins 10.
- 1 OHIO 21 OSU 52
- 2 OHIO 7 OSU 44
- 3 OHIO 7 OSU 48
- 4 OHIO 0 OSU 44
- 5 OHIO 0 OSU 48
- 6 OHIO 0 OSU 51
- 7 OHIO 0 OSU 55
- 8 OHIO 0 OSU 58
- 9 OHIO 0 OSU 62
- 10 OHIO 0 OSU 66
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ohio wins 0% of them, Ohio State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Ohio State by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ohio by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Ohio by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Ohio by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Ohio State by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Ohio State by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Ohio State by 17+ | 97.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Fielding, 38 yds made · 77% expected
- J. Fielding, 20 yds made · 95% expected
- B. Peacock, 44 yds made · 64% expected
- J. Fielding, 22 yds made · 94% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Ohio 3 for 25 yards, Ohio State 6 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:20 | Delay of Game on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OHIO +1.9 pts |
| Q1 8:13 | False Start on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OHIO +0.6 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Personal Foul on Ohio State, 15 yards | 0% OHIO +1.6 pts |
| Q2 6:05 | Penalty on Ohio, 15 yards | 0% OSU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 6:05 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Ohio State, 0 yards | 0% OHIO 0.0 pts |
| Q2 2:21 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OSU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 2:18 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OSU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:20 | Holding on Ohio State, 10 yards | 0% OHIO +0.7 pts |
| Q3 14:07 | Delay of Game on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OHIO +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Ohio State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +1% OHIO | OSU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 11:20 | Ohio State was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedOhio was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedDelay of Game on Ohio State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% OHIO | OSU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 8:13 | Ohio State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedOhio State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedFalse Start on Ohio State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% OHIO | OSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 1:54 | Ohio was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedJ. Fielding made a 38-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him | +1% OHIO | OHIO: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 2:29 | Ohio State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +1% OSU | OSU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 14:07 | Ohio missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the timeDelay of Game on Ohio State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% OSU | OHIO: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 11:19 | Ohio was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedJ. Fielding made a 22-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him | +0% OHIO | OHIO: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 6:16 | Ohio converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedOhio was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +1% OHIO | OHIO: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ohio 0% · Ohio State 100%
- Final margin
- Ohio State by 28
- Luck in points
- 1.0 for Ohio
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio State by 29.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Ohio 0% · Ohio State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Ohio · 
Ohio State
More from Week 3 2025
- Liberty at Bowling Green BGSU 23–13 · replay 33% for the winner
- Akron at UAB UAB 31–28 · replay 69% for the winner
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- USC at Purdue USC 33–17 · replay 74% for the winner
- Buffalo at Kent State BUF 31–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- New Mexico at UCLA UNM 35–10 · replay 85% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Kentucky UK 48–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- New Hampshire at Ball State BALL 34–29 · replay 96% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Alabama ALA 38–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Youngstown State at Michigan State MSU 41–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Rutgers RUTG 60–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oregon at Northwestern ORE 34–14 · replay 98% for the winner