Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Ohio State at Michigan, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Ohio State beat Michigan 27–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ohio State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Ohio State was a 73% favorite.
Final
 Ohio State Buckeyes | 27 |
|---|---|
 Michigan Wolverines | 9 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Ohio State about even · −5 Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ohio State wins 10, Michigan wins 0.
- 1 OSU 35 MICH 0
- 2 OSU 35 MICH 7
- 3 OSU 31 MICH 7
- 4 OSU 31 MICH 10
- 5 OSU 20 MICH 0
- 6 OSU 24 MICH 7
- 7 OSU 24 MICH 10
- 8 OSU 31 MICH 20
- 9 OSU 20 MICH 13
- 10 OSU 13 MICH 10
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ohio State wins 95% of them, Michigan 5%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ohio State by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ohio State by 17+ | 64.2% |
| Ohio State by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Ohio State by 1–8 | 11.7% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Michigan by 1–8 | 2.9% |
| Michigan by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Michigan by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Zvada, 45 yds made · 66% expected
- D. Zvada, 25 yds made · 94% expected
- J. Fielding, 24 yds made · 94% expected
- D. Zvada, 49 yds made · 59% expected
- J. Fielding, 23 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Ohio State 6 for 72 yards, Michigan 1 for 3 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:20 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Michigan, 3 yards | +4% OSU +2.1 pts |
| Q1 4:51 | False Start on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MICH +1.4 pts |
| Q2 10:36 | Pass Interference on Ohio State, 15 yards | +4% MICH +2.3 pts |
| Q2 5:24 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Ohio State, 12 yards | +2% MICH +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:03 | Pass Interference on Ohio State, 15 yards | +3% MICH +3.1 pts |
| Q4 6:36 | Holding on Ohio State, 10 yards | 0% MICH +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Ohio State, 15 yards | 0% MICH +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Michigan’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:20 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Michigan, 3 yardsJudgment calls | +4% OSU | OSU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 5:16 | Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +3% MICH | OSU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 0:56 | Ohio State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +4% OSU | OSU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 14:27 | Ohio State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +4% OSU | OSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 12:28 | Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +4% MICH | OSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 11:44 | Ohio State converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +6% OSU | OSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 10:36 | Pass Interference on Ohio State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% MICH | MICH: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 5:24 | D. Zvada made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 14 of 17 from 45+ beforeUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Ohio State, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +4% MICH | MICH: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ohio State 100% · Michigan 0%
- Final margin
- Ohio State by 18
- Luck in points
- 3.5 for Ohio State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio State by 14.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Ohio State 95% · Michigan 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Ohio State · 
Michigan
More from Week 14 2025
- Oregon at Washington ORE 26–14 · replay 34% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Minnesota MINN 17–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Penn State at Rutgers PSU 40–36 · replay 51% for the winner
- Maryland vs Michigan State MSU 38–28 · replay 55% for the winner
- Iowa at Nebraska IOWA 40–16 · replay 76% for the winner
- Northwestern at Illinois ILL 20–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- UCLA at USC USC 29–10 · replay 93% for the winner
- Indiana at Purdue IU 56–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner