Sun Belt · 2026 season, in progress

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: luck and expected wins

Coastal Carolina is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.9 wins. Luck cost 0.9: the 14th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–2.

2026, game by game

How often Coastal Carolina wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ West Virginia	L 24–31	58%	−58
Week 2	vs Fordham	W 45–7	99%	+1
Week 3	@ Delaware	L 14–22	28%	−28
Week 4	vs Liberty	L 17–34	4%	−4

Wk 1 −58 @ WVU

Wk 2 +1 vs FOR

Wk 3 −28 @ DEL

Wk 4 −4 vs LIB

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Coastal Carolina win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Georgia Southern	Georgia Southern by 0.3	49%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Marshall	Marshall by 2.8	43%
Week 7 · Oct 16	vs App State	App State by 2.5	44%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Georgia State	Georgia State by 9.2	29%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Old Dominion	Old Dominion by 1.0	48%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Arkansas State	Coastal Carolina by 0.5	51%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Louisiana	Louisiana by 11.6	25%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at James Madison	James Madison by 25.3	7%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Coastal Carolina’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.17	+3.2
Fumble bounces	+0.06	+4.0
Pre-snap flags	−0.08	−1.9

Luckiest wins

Wins Coastal Carolina takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 7	vs UL Monroe	W 23–8	31%	+69
2025 Week 4	@ South Alabama	W 38–20	74%	+26
2025 Week 8	@ App State	W 45–37	79%	+21
2025 Week 10	vs Marshall	W 44–27	80%	+20
2025 Week 11	vs Georgia State	W 40–27	92%	+8

Unluckiest losses

Losses Coastal Carolina would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl	vs Louisiana Tech	L 14–23	61%	−61
2026 Week 1	@ West Virginia	L 24–31	58%	−58
2026 Week 3	@ Delaware	L 14–22	28%	−28
2025 Week 12	@ Georgia Southern	L 40–45	18%	−18
2026 Week 4	vs Liberty	L 17–34	4%	−4

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	6–6	4.7	+1.3	1–1	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Virginia	L 7–48	2%	−2
Week 2	vs Charleston Southern	W 13–0	93%	+7
Week 3	vs East Carolina	L 0–38	4%	−4
Week 4	@ South Alabama	W 38–20	74%	+26
Week 6	@ Old Dominion	L 7–47	0%	0
Week 7	vs UL Monroe	W 23–8	31%	+69
Week 8	@ App State	W 45–37	79%	+21
Week 10	vs Marshall	W 44–27	80%	+20
Week 11	vs Georgia State	W 40–27	92%	+8
Week 12	@ Georgia Southern	L 40–45	18%	−18
Week 13	@ South Carolina	L 7–51	0%	0
Week 14	vs James Madison	L 10–59	0%	0
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl	vs Louisiana Tech	L 14–23	61%	−61