College football · Week 11 2026 · Saturday, November 14
Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina prediction and pick
Our Arkansas State Red Wolves at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers pick: Coastal Carolina by 0.5, 51% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 7 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.0, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Sat, Nov 14, time to be announced · Brooks Stadium (SC)
Coastal Carolina by 0.5 · 51% to win
Ours: Coastal Carolina by 0.5Arkansas State win 49%Coastal Carolina win 51%494235282114707142128354249← Arkansas State win byCoastal Carolina win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Arkansas State win
48.9%
Coastal Carolina win
51.1%
Middle 50%: Arkansas State by 11 to Coastal Carolina by 12
50%
Middle 90%: Arkansas State by 28 to Coastal Carolina by 28
90%
Middle 95%: Arkansas State by 33 to Coastal Carolina by 34
95%
Exactly Coastal Carolina by 3
6.5%
Exactly Arkansas State by 3
6.4%
Exactly Coastal Carolina by 7
4.9%
Exactly Arkansas State by 7
4.8%
Exactly Coastal Carolina by 14
3.0%
P50
Half of games like this end between Arkansas State by 11 and Coastal Carolina by 12.
P90
9 in 10 between Arkansas State by 28 and Coastal Carolina by 28.
P95
19 in 20 between Arkansas State by 33 and Coastal Carolina by 34.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina: questions and answers
Who will win Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina?
Our forecast picks Coastal Carolina, with 51% to win; Arkansas State win 49% of the time.
What’s the spread for Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina?
Our spread: Coastal Carolina −0.5. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Brooks Stadium (SC).
Arkansas State at 
Coastal Carolina
