College football · Week 11 2026 · Saturday, November 14
Georgia Southern vs Georgia State prediction and pick
Our Georgia Southern Eagles at Georgia State Panthers pick: Georgia State by 5.7, 63% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 7 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.0, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Sat, Nov 14, time to be announced · Center Parc Stadium
Georgia State by 5.7 · 63% to win
Ours: Georgia State by 5.7Georgia Southern win 37%Georgia State win 63%5649423528211470714212835424956← Georgia Southern win byGeorgia State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Georgia Southern win
36.8%
Georgia State win
63.2%
Middle 50%: Georgia Southern by 6 to Georgia State by 17
50%
Middle 90%: Georgia Southern by 22 to Georgia State by 34
90%
Middle 95%: Georgia Southern by 28 to Georgia State by 39
95%
Exactly Georgia State by 3
6.5%
Exactly Georgia Southern by 3
5.8%
Exactly Georgia State by 7
5.3%
Exactly Georgia Southern by 7
4.0%
Exactly Georgia State by 14
3.7%
P50
Half of games like this end between Georgia Southern by 6 and Georgia State by 17.
P90
9 in 10 between Georgia Southern by 22 and Georgia State by 34.
P95
19 in 20 between Georgia Southern by 28 and Georgia State by 39.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Georgia Southern vs Georgia State: questions and answers
Who will win Georgia Southern vs Georgia State?
Our forecast picks Georgia State, with 63% to win; Georgia Southern win 37% of the time.
What’s the spread for Georgia Southern vs Georgia State?
Our spread: Georgia State −5.7. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Georgia Southern vs Georgia State?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Center Parc Stadium.
Georgia Southern at 
Georgia State
