College football · Week 11 2026 · Saturday, November 14
Troy vs South Alabama prediction and pick
Our Troy Trojans at South Alabama Jaguars pick: South Alabama by 4.3, 60% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 7 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.0, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Troy vs South Alabama: questions and answers
Who will win Troy vs South Alabama?
Our forecast picks South Alabama, with 60% to win; Troy win 40% of the time.
What’s the spread for Troy vs South Alabama?
Our spread: South Alabama −4.3. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Troy vs South Alabama?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
Troy at 
South Alabama
