College football · Week 11 2026 · Saturday, November 14
Southern Miss vs Louisiana Tech prediction and pick
Our Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs pick: Louisiana Tech by 9.0, 70% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 7 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.0, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Sat, Nov 14, time to be announced · Joe Aillet Stadium
Louisiana Tech by 9.0 · 70% to win
Ours: Louisiana Tech by 9.0Southern Miss win 30%Louisiana Tech win 70%5649423528211470714212835424956← Southern Miss win byLouisiana Tech win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Southern Miss win
29.7%
Louisiana Tech win
70.3%
Middle 50%: Southern Miss by 3 to Louisiana Tech by 21
50%
Middle 90%: Southern Miss by 19 to Louisiana Tech by 37
90%
Middle 95%: Southern Miss by 24 to Louisiana Tech by 42
95%
Exactly Louisiana Tech by 3
6.2%
Exactly Louisiana Tech by 7
5.3%
Exactly Southern Miss by 3
5.1%
Exactly Louisiana Tech by 14
4.0%
Exactly Louisiana Tech by 17
3.6%
P50
Half of games like this end between Southern Miss by 3 and Louisiana Tech by 21.
P90
9 in 10 between Southern Miss by 19 and Louisiana Tech by 37.
P95
19 in 20 between Southern Miss by 24 and Louisiana Tech by 42.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Southern Miss vs Louisiana Tech: questions and answers
Who will win Southern Miss vs Louisiana Tech?
Our forecast picks Louisiana Tech, with 70% to win; Southern Miss win 30% of the time.
What’s the spread for Southern Miss vs Louisiana Tech?
Our spread: Louisiana Tech −9.0. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Southern Miss vs Louisiana Tech?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Joe Aillet Stadium.
Southern Miss at 
Louisiana Tech
