luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Coastal Carolina at West Virginia, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

West Virginia beat Coastal Carolina 31–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, West Virginia wins 4 of 10.

West Virginia won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Coastal Carolina it would win 100% of the time; with this day’s form, 42%. The numbers

Before kickoff West Virginia was a 91% favorite.

Final

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 24
West Virginia Mountaineers 31

September 5, 2026 · Milan Puskar Stadium · Closing line: West Virginia −21

Luck index +58 West Virginia lucky · −58 Coastal Carolina

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Coastal Carolina wins 6, West Virginia wins 4.

  1. 1 CCU 41 WVU 6
  2. 2 CCU 37 WVU 14
  3. 3 CCU 34 WVU 17
  4. 4 CCU 14 WVU 3
  5. 5 CCU 28 WVU 21
  6. 6 CCU 24 WVU 21
  7. 7 CCU 21 WVU 24
  8. 8 CCU 10 WVU 17
  9. 9 CCU 10 WVU 24
  10. 10 CCU 17 WVU 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

West Virginia won on an off day

It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Coastal Carolina it would win 100% of the time; with this day’s form, 42%.

58 points apart for West Virginia: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Coastal Carolina offenseEPA per play gained −0.49 +0.06 worse by 0.55
Coastal Carolina defenseEPA per play allowed +4.12 +0.06 worse by 4.05
West Virginia offenseEPA per play gained +4.12 −0.02 better by 4.14
West Virginia defenseEPA per play allowed −0.49 +0.08 better by 0.57

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Coastal Carolina wins 58% of them, West Virginia 42%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: West Virginia by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Coastal Carolina by 17+22.0%
Coastal Carolina by 9–1617.3%
Coastal Carolina by 1–817.8%
Level after regulation2.0%
West Virginia by 1–818.7%
West Virginia by 9–1611.8%
West Virginia by 17+10.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.3 points to West Virginia: the final margin was West Virginia by 7, without the luck Coastal Carolina by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Cassidy, 38 yds made · 76% expected
  • N. Cavanillas Alti, 32 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Coastal Carolina 7 for 51 yards, West Virginia 7 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:44 Pass Interference on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% WVU +2.0 pts
Q1 1:39 Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards 0% WVU +0.5 pts
Q1 1:22 Intentional Grounding on Coastal Carolina, 16 yards 0% WVU +1.0 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CCU +0.7 pts
Q2 9:16 False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WVU +0.1 pts
Q3 12:31 False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CCU +0.6 pts
Q3 11:08 False Start on Coastal Carolina, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% WVU 0.0 pts
Q3 9:52 Holding on West Virginia, 10 yards 0% CCU +1.5 pts
Q3 7:52 Pass Interference on West Virginia, 15 yards 0% CCU +3.1 pts
Q3 5:09 Holding on West Virginia, 10 yards 0% CCU +1.3 pts
Q3 3:30 Holding on West Virginia, 10 yards 0% CCU +1.8 pts
Q3 1:42 False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WVU +1.3 pts
Q4 6:43 Illegal Substitution on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WVU +0.6 pts
Q4 1:34 Roughing the Passer on West Virginia, 15 yards 0% CCU +0.6 pts

When it happened

West Virginia’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while West Virginia was ahead in it, below while Coastal Carolina was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:44 Pass Interference on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% WVU WVU: Punt
2 Q1 11:19 Coastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected +1% WVU CCU: Punt
3 Q1 6:25 Coastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +1% WVU CCU: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 5:47 Coastal Carolina was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +2% WVU CCU: Punt
5 Q1 4:48 West Virginia converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +1% WVU WVU: Touchdown
6 Q1 3:39 West Virginia converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +1% WVU WVU: Touchdown
7 Q1 2:14 West Virginia converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +1% WVU WVU: Field goal
8 Q4 11:59 West Virginia converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +1% WVU WVU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Coastal Carolina 51% · West Virginia 49%

Final margin
West Virginia by 7
Luck in points
7.3 for West Virginia
Luck-adjusted margin
Coastal Carolina by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Coastal Carolina 58% · West Virginia 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Coastal Carolina · West Virginia

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