luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Norfolk State at Old Dominion, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Old Dominion beat Norfolk State 31–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Old Dominion wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Old Dominion was a 100% favorite.

Final

Norfolk State Spartans 10
Old Dominion Monarchs 31

September 5, 2026 · S.B. Ballard Stadium · Closing line: Old Dominion −41.5

Luck index +2 Old Dominion about even · −2 Norfolk State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Norfolk State wins 0, Old Dominion wins 10.

  1. 1 NORF 17 ODU 24
  2. 2 NORF 14 ODU 27
  3. 3 NORF 14 ODU 31
  4. 4 NORF 13 ODU 33
  5. 5 NORF 16 ODU 40
  6. 6 NORF 16 ODU 44
  7. 7 NORF 13 ODU 45
  8. 8 NORF 17 ODU 54
  9. 9 NORF 6 ODU 48
  10. 10 NORF 10 ODU 61

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Norfolk State wins 2% of them, Old Dominion 98%. The line is what actually happened: Old Dominion by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Norfolk State by 17+0.1%
Norfolk State by 9–160.3%
Norfolk State by 1–81.2%
Level after regulation0.1%
Old Dominion by 1–83.8%
Old Dominion by 9–168.2%
Old Dominion by 17+86.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.0 points to Old Dominion: the final margin was Old Dominion by 21, without the luck Old Dominion by 12. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Eichner, 37 yds made · 76% expected
  • M. Peery, 37 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Norfolk State 7 for 44 yards, Old Dominion 6 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:14 Personal Foul on Old Dominion, 15 yards 0% NORF +3.8 pts
Q1 12:14 False Start on Norfolk State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ODU +0.9 pts
Q1 12:14 Delay of Game on Norfolk State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ODU +1.2 pts
Q1 2:48 Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards 0% NORF +0.8 pts
Q1 2:48 Pass Interference on Norfolk State, 12 yards 0% ODU +2.4 pts
Q1 0:00 Illegal Block on Norfolk State, 7 yards 0% ODU +0.4 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NORF +0.6 pts
Q2 13:46 False Start on Norfolk State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ODU +0.7 pts
Q2 9:55 Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards 0% NORF +0.6 pts
Q3 11:35 Roughing the Kicker on Old Dominion, 15 yards 0% NORF +3.8 pts
Q3 4:18 False Start on Norfolk State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ODU +1.3 pts
Q4 14:17 Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards 0% NORF +0.6 pts
Q4 9:36 False Start on Norfolk State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ODU +0.1 pts

When it happened

Old Dominion’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Old Dominion was ahead in it, below while Norfolk State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:14 Personal Foul on Old Dominion, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Norfolk State, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsDelay of Game on Norfolk State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% NORF NORF: End of half
2 Q1 7:25 Norfolk State fumbled and Old Dominion recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% ODU NORF: Punt
3 Q1 2:48 Old Dominion converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedHolding on Old Dominion, 10 yardsJudgment callsPass Interference on Norfolk State, 12 yardsJudgment calls +0% ODU ODU: End of half
4 Q2 13:46 Old Dominion converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedNorfolk State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedNorfolk State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedFalse Start on Norfolk State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% ODU ODU: Punt
5 Q3 12:54 Old Dominion was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +0% NORF ODU: Touchdown
6 Q3 11:35 Norfolk State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedNorfolk State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedRoughing the Kicker on Old Dominion, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% NORF NORF: Field goal
7 Q3 8:58 Old Dominion converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +0% ODU ODU: Touchdown
8 Q3 4:18 Old Dominion converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedFalse Start on Norfolk State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% ODU ODU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Norfolk State 3% · Old Dominion 97%

Final margin
Old Dominion by 21
Luck in points
9.0 for Old Dominion
Luck-adjusted margin
Old Dominion by 12.0
Replay with same day's form
Norfolk State 2% · Old Dominion 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Norfolk State · Old Dominion

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