Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Charleston Southern at Georgia Southern, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Georgia Southern beat Charleston Southern 31–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia Southern wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia Southern was a 97% favorite.
Final
 Charleston Southern Buccaneers | 0 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Southern Eagles | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Georgia Southern about even · 0 Charleston Southern
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Charleston Southern wins 0, Georgia Southern wins 10.
- 1 CHSO 3 GASO 19
- 2 CHSO 7 GASO 31
- 3 CHSO 7 GASO 37
- 4 CHSO 6 GASO 41
- 5 CHSO 3 GASO 42
- 6 CHSO 0 GASO 43
- 7 CHSO 6 GASO 52
- 8 CHSO 0 GASO 50
- 9 CHSO 3 GASO 58
- 10 CHSO 0 GASO 65
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Charleston Southern wins 0% of them, Georgia Southern 100%. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Southern by 31.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Charleston Southern by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Charleston Southern by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Charleston Southern by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Georgia Southern by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Georgia Southern by 9–16 | 1.1% |
| Georgia Southern by 17+ | 98.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Bryant, 32 yds made · 85% expected
- B. Ford, 31 yds missed · 85% expected
- B. Ford, 39 yds missed · 73% expected
Penalties: Charleston Southern 4 for 35 yards, Georgia Southern 7 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:15 | Personal Foul on Georgia Southern, 15 yards | 0% CHSO +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:37 | Running Into the Kicker on Georgia Southern, 5 yards | 0% CHSO +0.6 pts |
| Q2 4:00 | Holding on Charleston Southern, 10 yards | 0% GASO +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:45 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards | 0% CHSO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:35 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards | 0% GASO +1.5 pts |
| Q3 1:43 | Holding on Charleston Southern, 10 yards | 0% GASO +0.2 pts |
| Q4 6:05 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% CHSO +1.7 pts |
| Q4 6:05 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% CHSO +0.5 pts |
| Q4 6:05 | Delay of Game on Charleston Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GASO +4.7 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 15 yards | 0% CHSO +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:00 | Holding on Charleston Southern, 10 yards | 0% GASO +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Georgia Southern’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:28 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +0% GASO | GASO: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:15 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected | +0% GASO | GASO: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:55 | Charleston Southern was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +0% GASO | CHSO: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:09 | Charleston Southern was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +0% GASO | CHSO: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 3:18 | Georgia Southern was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +0% CHSO | GASO: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 2:41 | Georgia Southern converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +0% GASO | GASO: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 0:51 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +0% GASO | GASO: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:00 | Georgia Southern was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedCharleston Southern converted 3rd & 233rd & 4th downs · 14% expectedCharleston Southern was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedHolding on Charleston Southern, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% GASO | GASO: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Charleston Southern 0% · Georgia Southern 100%
- Final margin
- Georgia Southern by 31
- Luck in points
- 4.2 for Charleston Southern
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia Southern by 35.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Charleston Southern 0% · Georgia Southern 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Charleston Southern · 
Georgia Southern
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