Week 1 2026 · September 3, 2026
Eastern Illinois at Minnesota, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Minnesota beat Eastern Illinois 59–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Minnesota wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Minnesota was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Eastern Illinois Panthers | 7 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Golden Gophers | 59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Minnesota about even · 0 Eastern Illinois
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eastern Illinois wins 0, Minnesota wins 10.
- 1 EIU 3 MINN 22
- 2 EIU 0 MINN 24
- 3 EIU 0 MINN 28
- 4 EIU 0 MINN 33
- 5 EIU 3 MINN 38
- 6 EIU 0 MINN 38
- 7 EIU 0 MINN 40
- 8 EIU 0 MINN 43
- 9 EIU 3 MINN 50
- 10 EIU 0 MINN 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eastern Illinois wins 0% of them, Minnesota 100%. The line is what actually happened: Minnesota by 52.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eastern Illinois by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Eastern Illinois by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Eastern Illinois by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Minnesota by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Minnesota by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Minnesota by 17+ | 96.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Eastern Illinois 6 for 35 yards, Minnesota 2 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:42 | False Start on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EIU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 4:47 | Illegal Substitution on Eastern Illinois, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% MINN +2.4 pts |
| Q1 3:52 | False Start on Eastern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MINN +0.7 pts |
| Q1 2:12 | Personal Foul on Eastern Illinois, 12 yards | 0% MINN +1.2 pts |
| Q2 2:35 | Holding on Eastern Illinois, 10 yards | 0% MINN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:59 | Offside on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EIU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 12:26 | False Start on Eastern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MINN +2.0 pts |
| Q4 1:54 | Face Mask on Eastern Illinois, 1 yard | 0% MINN +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Minnesota’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:32 | Minnesota was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +0% EIU | MINN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:23 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +0% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 6:42 | False Start on Minnesota, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% EIU | EIU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 4:47 | Illegal Substitution on Eastern Illinois, 2 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 2:38 | Eastern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +0% MINN | EIU: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 2:14 | Return touchdown by MinnesotaSpecial teams | +0% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 7:19 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 2:35 | Holding on Eastern Illinois, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eastern Illinois 0% · Minnesota 100%
- Final margin
- Minnesota by 52
- Luck in points
- 8.3 for Minnesota
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Minnesota by 43.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Eastern Illinois 0% · Minnesota 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Eastern Illinois · 
Minnesota
More from Week 1 2026
- Toledo at Michigan State MSU 30–20 · replay 49% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Rutgers MASS 37–21 · replay 74% for the winner
- Wisconsin vs Notre Dame ND 41–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan MICH 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Washington State at Washington WASH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boise State at Oregon ORE 34–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Ohio at Nebraska NEB 49–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- UAB at Illinois ILL 42–23 · replay 95% for the winner
- UCLA at California UCLA 45–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- South Dakota State at Northwestern NU 34–18 · replay 97% for the winner
- San José State at USC USC 42–26 · replay 98% for the winner