Week 1 2026 · September 4, 2026
Toledo at Michigan State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Michigan State beat Toledo 30–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Michigan State wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Michigan State.
Before kickoff Michigan State was a 74% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:50 left): Illegal Substitution on Toledo, 5 yards, worth 19 points of win probability to Michigan State.
Final
 Toledo Rockets | 20 |
|---|---|
 Michigan State Spartans | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +51 Michigan State lucky · −51 Toledo
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Toledo wins 5, Michigan State wins 5.
- 1 TOL 40 MSU 10
- 2 TOL 38 MSU 19
- 3 TOL 35 MSU 22
- 4 TOL 27 MSU 20
- 5 TOL 34 MSU 31
- 6 TOL 21 MSU 23
- 7 TOL 28 MSU 33
- 8 TOL 24 MSU 34
- 9 TOL 17 MSU 32
- 10 TOL 24 MSU 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Toledo wins 51% of them, Michigan State 49%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Michigan State by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Toledo by 17+ | 16.9% |
| Toledo by 9–16 | 16.0% |
| Toledo by 1–8 | 17.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Michigan State by 1–8 | 18.4% |
| Michigan State by 9–16 | 14.2% |
| Michigan State by 17+ | 15.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Boyd, 32 yds made · 84% expected
- L. Boyd, 42 yds made · 69% expected
- L. Boyd, 48 yds made · 58% expected
- L. Boyd, 35 yds made · 81% expected
- R. Griffith, 41 yds missed · 71% expected
- L. Boyd, 51 yds made · 54% expected
Penalties: Toledo 7 for 39 yards, Michigan State 4 for 43 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:13 | Offside on Toledo, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% MSU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 6:22 | Delay of Game on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MSU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 0:06 | Delay of Game on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 11:37 | Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards | +2% TOL +2.2 pts |
| Q2 7:50 | Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards | +5% TOL +3.4 pts |
| Q2 0:25 | Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards | 0% TOL +1.5 pts |
| Q3 6:49 | Intentional Grounding on Toledo, 0 yards | 0% MSU 0.0 pts |
| Q4 13:47 | Roughing the Passer on Toledo, 15 yards | +6% MSU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 10:32 | Pass Interference on Michigan State, 13 yards | +3% TOL +1.0 pts |
| Q4 7:50 | Illegal Substitution on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% MSU +2.3 pts |
| Q4 1:55 | Ineligible Downfield on Toledo, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% MSU +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Michigan State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 11:37 | Toledo converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedL. Boyd made a 42-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for himHolding on Michigan State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% TOL | TOL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 7:50 | Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 14% expectedHolding on Michigan State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% TOL | MSU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 6:49 | Michigan State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedMichigan State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedIntentional Grounding on Toledo, 0 yardsJudgment calls | +4% MSU | MSU: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 4:12 | Toledo was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +4% MSU | TOL: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 14:36 | Michigan State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +8% TOL | MSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 13:47 | Toledo’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedRoughing the Passer on Toledo, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +9% MSU | TOL: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 10:37 | Michigan State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expectedMichigan State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +12% MSU | MSU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 7:50 | Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedMichigan State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedR. Griffith missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for himIllegal Substitution on Toledo, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +19% MSU | MSU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Toledo 91% · Michigan State 9%
- Final margin
- Michigan State by 10
- Luck in points
- 19.8 for Michigan State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Toledo by 9.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Toledo 51% · Michigan State 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Toledo · 
Michigan State
More from Week 1 2026
- San José State at Eastern Michigan SJSU 27–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Rutgers MASS 37–21 · replay 74% for the winner
- Tarleton State at Bowling Green TAR 20–13 · replay 77% for the winner
- Wisconsin vs Notre Dame ND 41–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- UAlbany at Buffalo BUF 21–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan MICH 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Washington State at Washington WASH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boise State at Oregon ORE 34–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- Akron at Wake Forest WAKE 38–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Ohio at Nebraska NEB 49–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- UAB at Illinois ILL 42–23 · replay 95% for the winner