Week 1 2026 · September 6, 2026
Washington State at Washington, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Washington beat Washington State 24–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Washington wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Washington was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Washington State Cougars | 10 |
|---|---|
 Washington Huskies | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Washington about even · −11 Washington State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Washington State wins 1, Washington wins 9.
- 1 WSU 17 WASH 10
- 2 WSU 10 WASH 13
- 3 WSU 21 WASH 27
- 4 WSU 13 WASH 22
- 5 WSU 6 WASH 17
- 6 WSU 7 WASH 21
- 7 WSU 6 WASH 24
- 8 WSU 9 WASH 31
- 9 WSU 0 WASH 28
- 10 WSU 3 WASH 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Washington State wins 11% of them, Washington 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Washington State by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Washington State by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| Washington State by 1–8 | 7.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Washington by 1–8 | 13.6% |
| Washington by 9–16 | 21.6% |
| Washington by 17+ | 53.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Stevens, 52 yds missed · 52% expected
- T. Robles, 48 yds made · 58% expected
- T. Robles, 29 yds missed · 88% expected
- J. Stevens, 32 yds missed · 86% expected
- J. Stevens, 42 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: Washington State 6 for 50 yards, Washington 12 for 130 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:40 | Kick Catch Interference on Washington, 15 yards | +1% WSU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 7:16 | Holding on Washington State, 10 yards | +1% WASH +1.0 pts |
| Q1 5:03 | Holding on Washington, 10 yards | +1% WSU +1.5 pts |
| Q1 4:33 | Delay of Game on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WSU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 4:32 | Holding on Washington, 10 yards | +1% WSU +1.5 pts |
| Q2 13:00 | Offside on Washington, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% WSU +0.1 pts |
| Q2 10:09 | False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +1.0 pts |
| Q2 5:27 | Holding on Washington State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% WASH +1.8 pts |
| Q2 5:26 | Personal Foul on Washington, 15 yards | +1% WSU +3.0 pts |
| Q2 1:30 | Roughing the Passer on Washington State, 15 yards | 0% WASH +1.4 pts |
| Q3 14:55 | Delay of Game on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:50 | Personal Foul on Washington, 15 yards | +1% WSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 9:54 | Delay of Game on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +0.5 pts |
| Q3 9:29 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Washington, 15 yards | +1% WSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 7:04 | Delay of Game on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +0.3 pts |
| Q4 6:28 | Targeting on Washington, 15 yards | +1% WSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:56 | False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:18 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Washington, 15 yards | 0% WSU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Washington’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:04 | J. Stevens missed a 52-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before | +2% WASH | WSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 3:53 | T. Robles made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +1% WASH | WASH: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 13:42 | Washington was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +1% WSU | WASH: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 11:27 | Washington converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +1% WASH | WASH: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 5:26 | Personal Foul on Washington, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% WSU | WSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 6:59 | J. Stevens missed a 32-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him | +2% WASH | WSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 0:31 | Washington was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +2% WSU | WASH: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 12:48 | Washington State converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +2% WSU | WSU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Washington State 6% · Washington 94%
- Final margin
- Washington by 14
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for Washington
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Washington by 10.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Washington State 11% · Washington 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Washington State · 
Washington
More from Week 1 2026
- Idaho State at Utah State IDST 29–17 · replay 16% for the winner
- Toledo at Michigan State MSU 30–20 · replay 49% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Rutgers MASS 37–21 · replay 74% for the winner
- Wyoming at Colorado State CSU 35–13 · replay 75% for the winner
- Wisconsin vs Notre Dame ND 41–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- Portland State at San Diego State SDSU 53–20 · replay 80% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan MICH 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Oregon State at Houston HOU 33–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boise State at Oregon ORE 34–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Ohio at Nebraska NEB 49–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- UAB at Illinois ILL 42–23 · replay 95% for the winner