Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Wyoming at Colorado State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Colorado State beat Wyoming 35–13, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Colorado State was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:31 left): Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 8 points of win probability to Wyoming.
Final
 Wyoming Cowboys | 13 |
|---|---|
 Colorado State Rams | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Colorado State lucky · −25 Wyoming
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wyoming wins 3, Colorado State wins 7.
- 1 WYO 23 CSU 5
- 2 WYO 37 CSU 28
- 3 WYO 17 CSU 14
- 4 WYO 24 CSU 27
- 5 WYO 7 CSU 13
- 6 WYO 17 CSU 26
- 7 WYO 14 CSU 27
- 8 WYO 7 CSU 24
- 9 WYO 14 CSU 38
- 10 WYO 7 CSU 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wyoming wins 25% of them, Colorado State 75%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colorado State by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wyoming by 17+ | 3.8% |
| Wyoming by 9–16 | 7.6% |
| Wyoming by 1–8 | 11.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.5% |
| Colorado State by 1–8 | 23.1% |
| Colorado State by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| Colorado State by 17+ | 32.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Sandvik, 37 yds made · 75% expected
- K. Nguma, 54 yds missed · 47% expected
- E. Sandvik, 48 yds made · 55% expected
Penalties: Wyoming 6 for 47 yards, Colorado State 4 for 36 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:31 | Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% WYO +3.4 pts |
| Q2 8:55 | Delay of Game on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 7:44 | Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards | +2% WYO +1.1 pts |
| Q2 6:02 | False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WYO +0.5 pts |
| Q2 5:52 | Unnecessary Roughness on Wyoming, 12 yards | +2% CSU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 12:18 | Face Mask on Colorado State, 11 yards | +4% WYO +1.4 pts |
| Q3 5:21 | Illegal Formation on Wyoming, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +6% CSU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 0:15 | Offside on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 11:22 | Illegal Shift on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 7:10 | Roughing the Kicker on Wyoming, 15 yards | +1% CSU +3.3 pts |
When it happened
Colorado State’s chance of winning
As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:27 | Colorado State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +4% CSU | CSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 1:23 | Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +4% WYO | CSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 11:31 | Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% WYO | WYO: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 6:02 | Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedFalse Start on Colorado State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% WYO | CSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 11:52 | Wyoming fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% WYO | WYO: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 10:02 | Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +5% WYO | CSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 5:21 | Illegal Formation on Wyoming, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +6% CSU | CSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 11:22 | Colorado State converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedIllegal Shift on Wyoming, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% CSU | CSU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wyoming 0% · Colorado State 100%
- Final margin
- Colorado State by 22
- Luck in points
- 5.6 for Colorado State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Colorado State by 16.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Wyoming 25% · Colorado State 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Wyoming · 
Colorado State
More from Week 1 2026
- Idaho State at Utah State IDST 29–17 · replay 16% for the winner
- San José State at Eastern Michigan SJSU 27–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- Portland State at San Diego State SDSU 53–20 · replay 80% for the winner
- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Oregon State at Houston HOU 33–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Washington State at Washington WASH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boise State at Oregon ORE 34–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- UNLV at Hawai'i UNLV 21–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at North Dakota State NDSU 33–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Stanford STAN 37–27 · replay 97% for the winner
- Texas State at Texas TEX 59–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- San José State at USC USC 42–26 · replay 98% for the winner