Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Boise State at Oregon, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Oregon beat Boise State 34–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oregon wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Oregon was a 94% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:45 left): C. Moore made a 36-yard field goal, worth 9 points of win probability to Boise State.
Final
 Boise State Broncos | 27 |
|---|---|
 Oregon Ducks | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Oregon about even · −9 Boise State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Boise State wins 1, Oregon wins 9.
- 1 BOIS 27 ORE 21
- 2 BOIS 31 ORE 34
- 3 BOIS 26 ORE 35
- 4 BOIS 28 ORE 41
- 5 BOIS 12 ORE 30
- 6 BOIS 20 ORE 42
- 7 BOIS 13 ORE 38
- 8 BOIS 7 ORE 38
- 9 BOIS 13 ORE 49
- 10 BOIS 9 ORE 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Boise State wins 9% of them, Oregon 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oregon by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Boise State by 17+ | 1.2% |
| Boise State by 9–16 | 2.3% |
| Boise State by 1–8 | 5.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| Oregon by 1–8 | 11.8% |
| Oregon by 9–16 | 15.2% |
| Oregon by 17+ | 63.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Moore, 29 yds made · 87% expected
- G. Hurych, 26 yds made · 89% expected
- G. Hurych, 44 yds made · 64% expected
- C. Moore, 36 yds made · 78% expected
Penalties: Boise State 3 for 25 yards, Oregon 9 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:00 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ORE +2.0 pts |
| Q1 12:37 | Offside on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BOIS 0.0 pts |
| Q1 4:20 | Delay of Game on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ORE +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:09 | Offside on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BOIS +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:16 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oregon, 15 yards | +2% BOIS +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:48 | False Start on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BOIS +0.4 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | False Start on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BOIS +0.7 pts |
| Q3 5:36 | Pass Interference on Oregon, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +7% BOIS +4.4 pts |
| Q3 0:00 | Pass Interference on Boise State, 15 yards | +4% BOIS +1.9 pts |
| Q4 14:49 | Pass Interference on Oregon, 15 yards | +2% BOIS +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:49 | Offside on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BOIS +1.2 pts |
| Q4 5:41 | Illegal Snap on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BOIS +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Oregon’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 15:00 | Oregon converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedOregon converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% ORE | ORE: End of half |
| 2 | Q2 10:09 | Oregon was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedOregon was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expectedBoise State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedBoise State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedOffside on Oregon, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% BOIS | ORE: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q3 15:00 | Oregon converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedFalse Start on Oregon, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% ORE | ORE: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 1:20 | Boise State converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +6% BOIS | BOIS: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 0:00 | Pass Interference on Boise State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% BOIS | ORE: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 15:00 | Oregon was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +2% BOIS | ORE: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 14:49 | Boise State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedBoise State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedBoise State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedG. Hurych made a 44-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for himPass Interference on Oregon, 15 yardsJudgment callsOffside on Oregon, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% ORE | BOIS: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 8:45 | Boise State was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedC. Moore made a 36-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him | +8% BOIS | BOIS: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Boise State 2% · Oregon 98%
- Final margin
- Oregon by 7
- Luck in points
- 6.3 for Boise State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oregon by 13.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Boise State 9% · Oregon 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Boise State · 
Oregon
More from Week 1 2026
- Idaho State at Utah State IDST 29–17 · replay 16% for the winner
- Toledo at Michigan State MSU 30–20 · replay 49% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Rutgers MASS 37–21 · replay 74% for the winner
- Wyoming at Colorado State CSU 35–13 · replay 75% for the winner
- Wisconsin vs Notre Dame ND 41–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- Portland State at San Diego State SDSU 53–20 · replay 80% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan MICH 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Oregon State at Houston HOU 33–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Washington State at Washington WASH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Ohio at Nebraska NEB 49–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- UAB at Illinois ILL 42–23 · replay 95% for the winner