luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Southeast Missouri State at Iowa State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Iowa State beat Southeast Missouri State 38–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Iowa State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Iowa State was a 97% favorite.

Final

Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 10
Iowa State Cyclones 38

September 5, 2026 · Jack Trice Stadium · Closing line: Iowa State −29.5

Luck index +1 Iowa State about even · −1 Southeast Missouri State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Southeast Missouri State wins 0, Iowa State wins 10.

  1. 1 SEMO 20 ISU 27
  2. 2 SEMO 6 ISU 20
  3. 3 SEMO 15 ISU 33
  4. 4 SEMO 14 ISU 35
  5. 5 SEMO 6 ISU 31
  6. 6 SEMO 0 ISU 28
  7. 7 SEMO 6 ISU 37
  8. 8 SEMO 7 ISU 41
  9. 9 SEMO 10 ISU 48
  10. 10 SEMO 0 ISU 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Southeast Missouri State wins 1% of them, Iowa State 99%. The line is what actually happened: Iowa State by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Southeast Missouri State by 17+0.0%
Southeast Missouri State by 9–160.1%
Southeast Missouri State by 1–80.7%
Level after regulation0.5%
Iowa State by 1–83.9%
Iowa State by 9–167.1%
Iowa State by 17+87.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to Iowa State: the final margin was Iowa State by 28, without the luck Iowa State by 27.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Keller, 52 yds missed · 51% expected
  • K. Konrardy, 33 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Keller, 40 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Southeast Missouri State 6 for 52 yards, Iowa State 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:07 Delay of Game on Southeast Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEMO +1.1 pts
Q2 10:32 Unnecessary Roughness on Iowa State, 13 yards 0% SEMO +0.8 pts
Q2 4:13 Holding on Southeast Missouri State, 10 yards 0% ISU +0.7 pts
Q2 1:53 Illegal Substitution on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEMO +0.6 pts
Q3 13:35 Roughing the Passer on Iowa State, 15 yards 0% SEMO +0.6 pts
Q3 12:21 False Start on Southeast Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ISU +0.2 pts
Q3 11:40 Holding on Iowa State, 7 yards, wiping out the play 0% SEMO +7.6 pts
Q3 8:36 Delay of Game on Southeast Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ISU +1.3 pts
Q3 3:52 Pass Interference on Southeast Missouri State, 12 yards 0% ISU +1.5 pts
Q4 10:53 Pass Interference on Southeast Missouri State, 15 yards 0% ISU +0.5 pts

When it happened

Iowa State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Iowa State was ahead in it, below while Southeast Missouri State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:49 Iowa State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +0% SEMO ISU: Punt
2 Q1 7:50 Southeast Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +0% ISU SEMO: Missed field goal
3 Q1 7:13 J. Keller missed a 52-yard field goalKicks · 51% expected for him, 1 of 3 from 45+ before +0% ISU SEMO: Punt
4 Q1 5:30 Iowa State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +0% SEMO ISU: Punt
5 Q2 12:02 Southeast Missouri State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +0% SEMO SEMO: Touchdown
6 Q2 9:10 Iowa State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +0% SEMO ISU: Punt
7 Q2 7:30 Southeast Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +0% ISU SEMO: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 6:52 Southeast Missouri State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +1% ISU SEMO: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Southeast Missouri State 0% · Iowa State 100%

Final margin
Iowa State by 28
Luck in points
0.9 for Iowa State
Luck-adjusted margin
Iowa State by 27.1
Replay with same day's form
Southeast Missouri State 1% · Iowa State 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Southeast Missouri State · Iowa State

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