Week 1 2026 · September 4, 2026
Long Island University at Kansas, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Kansas beat Long Island University 51–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kansas wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Kansas was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Long Island University Sharks | 6 |
|---|---|
 Kansas Jayhawks | 51 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Kansas about even · 0 Long Island University
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Long Island University wins 0, Kansas wins 10.
- 1 LIU 0 KU 23
- 2 LIU 0 KU 31
- 3 LIU 7 KU 42
- 4 LIU 0 KU 38
- 5 LIU 7 KU 49
- 6 LIU 0 KU 45
- 7 LIU 3 KU 51
- 8 LIU 7 KU 56
- 9 LIU 0 KU 53
- 10 LIU 0 KU 59
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Long Island University wins 0% of them, Kansas 100%. The line is what actually happened: Kansas by 45.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Long Island University by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Long Island University by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Long Island University by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Kansas by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Kansas by 9–16 | 2.4% |
| Kansas by 17+ | 97.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Connington, 32 yds made · 84% expected
- W. Johnson, 39 yds made · 70% expected
- W. Johnson, 39 yds made · 71% expected
Penalties: Long Island University 3 for 40 yards, Kansas 6 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:22 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards | 0% LIU +2.1 pts |
| Q2 13:28 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards | 0% LIU +1.9 pts |
| Q2 6:37 | False Start on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LIU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 4:38 | Personal Foul on Long Island University, 15 yards | 0% KU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:56 | Holding on Long Island University, 10 yards | 0% KU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 9:08 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% LIU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 2:05 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards | 0% LIU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 0:50 | Personal Foul on Long Island University, 15 yards | 0% KU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 12:16 | Targeting on Kansas, 15 yards | 0% LIU +2.2 pts |
When it happened
Kansas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:52 | Kansas was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +0% LIU | KU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 11:19 | Kansas was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +0% LIU | KU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:22 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% LIU | LIU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 5:59 | Kansas’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% LIU | KU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 3:16 | Long Island University converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +0% LIU | LIU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 14:16 | Kansas converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +0% KU | KU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 13:28 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% LIU | LIU: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 9:49 | Kansas was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +0% LIU | KU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Long Island University 0% · Kansas 100%
- Final margin
- Kansas by 45
- Luck in points
- 2.8 for Kansas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kansas by 42.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Long Island University 0% · Kansas 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Long Island University · 
Kansas
More from Week 1 2026
- Colorado at Georgia Tech COLO 14–13 · replay 19% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 42% for the winner
- North Carolina vs TCU UNC 15–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Baylor vs Auburn AUB 17–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Oregon State at Houston HOU 33–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boston College at Cincinnati CIN 34–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Mercyhurst at New Mexico State NMSU 51–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Southeast Missouri State at Iowa State ISU 38–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Abilene Christian at Texas Tech TTU 33–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Bethune-Cookman at UCF UCF 73–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Idaho at Utah UTAH 66–14 · replay 100% for the winner