Week 1 2026 · September 3, 2026
Idaho at Utah, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Utah beat Idaho 66–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Utah wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Utah was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Idaho Vandals | 14 |
|---|---|
 Utah Utes | 66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Utah about even · 0 Idaho
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Idaho wins 0, Utah wins 10.
- 1 IDHO 17 UTAH 45
- 2 IDHO 7 UTAH 44
- 3 IDHO 14 UTAH 56
- 4 IDHO 0 UTAH 45
- 5 IDHO 3 UTAH 52
- 6 IDHO 3 UTAH 55
- 7 IDHO 7 UTAH 63
- 8 IDHO 7 UTAH 66
- 9 IDHO 10 UTAH 73
- 10 IDHO 3 UTAH 73
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Idaho wins 0% of them, Utah 100%. The line is what actually happened: Utah by 52.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Idaho by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Idaho by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Idaho by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Utah by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Utah by 9–16 | 1.1% |
| Utah by 17+ | 98.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Idaho 4 for 20 yards, Utah 1 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:40 | False Start on Idaho, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTAH +0.9 pts |
| Q1 1:20 | Holding on Utah, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% IDHO +2.8 pts |
| Q2 10:27 | False Start on Idaho, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTAH +1.0 pts |
| Q2 3:49 | Delay of Game on Idaho, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTAH +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:17 | Personal Foul on Idaho, 5 yards | 0% UTAH +1.0 pts |
When it happened
Utah’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:14 | Utah was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +0% IDHO | UTAH: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 7:36 | Idaho was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +0% UTAH | IDHO: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 5:21 | Utah was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +0% IDHO | UTAH: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 2:31 | Utah converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +0% UTAH | UTAH: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 1:20 | Holding on Utah, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% IDHO | IDHO: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 14:12 | Idaho converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% IDHO | IDHO: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 11:00 | Idaho converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +0% IDHO | IDHO: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 4:39 | Utah converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +0% UTAH | UTAH: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Idaho 0% · Utah 100%
- Final margin
- Utah by 52
- Luck in points
- 10.0 for Utah
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah by 42.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Idaho 0% · Utah 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Idaho · 
Utah
More from Week 1 2026
- Idaho State at Utah State IDST 29–17 · replay 16% for the winner
- Colorado at Georgia Tech COLO 14–13 · replay 19% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 42% for the winner
- North Carolina vs TCU UNC 15–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Portland State at San Diego State SDSU 53–20 · replay 80% for the winner
- Baylor vs Auburn AUB 17–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Oregon State at Houston HOU 33–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boston College at Cincinnati CIN 34–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Southeast Missouri State at Iowa State ISU 38–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Abilene Christian at Texas Tech TTU 33–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Bethune-Cookman at UCF UCF 73–6 · replay 100% for the winner