luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Lamar at Louisiana, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Louisiana beat Lamar 38–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Louisiana wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Louisiana was a 91% favorite.

Final

Lamar Cardinals 7
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 38

September 5, 2026 · Cajun Field · Closing line: Louisiana −20.5

Luck index 0 Louisiana about even · 0 Lamar

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lamar wins 0, Louisiana wins 10.

  1. 1 LAM 20 UL 31
  2. 2 LAM 20 UL 41
  3. 3 LAM 10 UL 35
  4. 4 LAM 0 UL 29
  5. 5 LAM 0 UL 34
  6. 6 LAM 0 UL 37
  7. 7 LAM 0 UL 41
  8. 8 LAM 7 UL 51
  9. 9 LAM 0 UL 47
  10. 10 LAM 7 UL 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lamar wins 0% of them, Louisiana 100%. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lamar by 17+0.0%
Lamar by 9–160.0%
Lamar by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Louisiana by 1–81.7%
Louisiana by 9–164.0%
Louisiana by 17+94.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 points to Louisiana: the final margin was Louisiana by 31, without the luck Louisiana by 30.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • A. Sandoval, 36 yds missed · 79% expected
  • T. Sterner, 31 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lamar 5 for 30 yards, Louisiana 5 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:09 False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAM +0.6 pts
Q1 1:22 False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAM +1.1 pts
Q1 1:14 Illegal Block on Lamar, 7 yards 0% UL +0.4 pts
Q2 14:56 False Start on Lamar, 3 yards · pre-snap 0% UL +0.1 pts
Q2 13:08 Holding on Lamar, 10 yards 0% UL +1.1 pts
Q2 6:52 Personal Foul on Louisiana, 15 yards 0% LAM +1.6 pts
Q2 6:28 Offside on Lamar, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UL +0.6 pts
Q3 14:21 Offside on Lamar, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAM +2.0 pts
Q3 12:47 False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAM +0.5 pts
Q4 13:23 Pass Interference on Louisiana, 13 yards 0% LAM +1.1 pts

When it happened

Louisiana’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Louisiana was ahead in it, below while Lamar was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:40 Lamar was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +1% UL LAM: Punt
2 Q1 9:35 Louisiana converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +1% UL UL: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:21 Lamar was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +1% UL LAM: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 2:56 Lamar was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +1% UL LAM: Punt
5 Q1 1:51 Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +1% LAM UL: Punt
6 Q1 1:22 False Start on Louisiana, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% LAM LAM: Punt
7 Q2 11:03 Lamar converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +1% LAM LAM: Turnover
8 Q2 11:01 Lamar fumbled and Louisiana recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +1% UL LAM: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lamar 0% · Louisiana 100%

Final margin
Louisiana by 31
Luck in points
0.2 for Louisiana
Luck-adjusted margin
Louisiana by 30.8
Replay with same day's form
Lamar 0% · Louisiana 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Lamar · Louisiana

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