luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 4, 2026

North Carolina A&T at Georgia State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Georgia State beat North Carolina A&T 59–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Georgia State was a 97% favorite.

Final

North Carolina A&T Aggies 10
Georgia State Panthers 59

September 4, 2026 · Center Parc Stadium · Closing line: Georgia State −28.5

Luck index 0 Georgia State about even · 0 North Carolina A&T

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. North Carolina A&T wins 0, Georgia State wins 10.

  1. 1 NCAT 10 GAST 34
  2. 2 NCAT 27 GAST 58
  3. 3 NCAT 7 GAST 45
  4. 4 NCAT 14 GAST 56
  5. 5 NCAT 14 GAST 59
  6. 6 NCAT 3 GAST 51
  7. 7 NCAT 7 GAST 59
  8. 8 NCAT 0 GAST 56
  9. 9 NCAT 14 GAST 73
  10. 10 NCAT 0 GAST 66

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

North Carolina A&T wins 0% of them, Georgia State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Georgia State by 49.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
North Carolina A&T by 17+0.0%
North Carolina A&T by 9–160.0%
North Carolina A&T by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Georgia State by 1–80.4%
Georgia State by 9–161.4%
Georgia State by 17+98.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.4 points to Georgia State: the final margin was Georgia State by 49, without the luck Georgia State by 40.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • S. Layous, 26 yds made · 90% expected
  • A. Holland, 39 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: North Carolina A&T 8 for 85 yards, Georgia State 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:21 Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% NCAT +1.8 pts
Q1 2:07 Personal Foul on North Carolina A&T, 15 yards 0% GAST +1.6 pts
Q2 14:17 False Start on North Carolina A&T, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GAST +0.6 pts
Q2 1:47 Holding on North Carolina A&T, 10 yards 0% GAST +0.6 pts
Q2 0:47 Unnecessary Roughness on North Carolina A&T, 15 yards 0% GAST +1.6 pts
Q2 0:03 Face Mask on North Carolina A&T, 15 yards 0% GAST +0.9 pts
Q3 10:20 Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards 0% NCAT +0.6 pts
Q3 10:11 Personal Foul on Georgia State, 15 yards 0% NCAT +0.9 pts
Q3 6:41 Offside on North Carolina A&T, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GAST +0.2 pts
Q3 1:42 False Start on North Carolina A&T, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GAST +3.0 pts
Q4 3:35 Delay of Game on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NCAT +0.3 pts
Q4 3:29 Roughing the Passer on North Carolina A&T, 15 yards 0% GAST +1.6 pts

When it happened

Georgia State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Georgia State was ahead in it, below while North Carolina A&T was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:11 North Carolina A&T was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +0% GAST NCAT: Punt
2 Q1 11:21 Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% NCAT NCAT: Punt
3 Q1 9:53 Georgia State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +1% NCAT GAST: Punt
4 Q1 8:06 North Carolina A&T was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +0% NCAT NCAT: Punt
5 Q1 6:16 North Carolina A&T converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +0% NCAT NCAT: Punt
6 Q1 2:07 Personal Foul on North Carolina A&T, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% GAST GAST: Touchdown
7 Q2 14:01 North Carolina A&T converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +0% NCAT NCAT: Punt
8 Q2 11:20 Georgia State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +0% GAST GAST: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

North Carolina A&T 0% · Georgia State 100%

Final margin
Georgia State by 49
Luck in points
8.4 for Georgia State
Luck-adjusted margin
Georgia State by 40.6
Replay with same day's form
North Carolina A&T 0% · Georgia State 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · North Carolina A&T · Georgia State

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