Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Bryant at Army, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Army beat Bryant 59–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Army wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Army was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Bryant Bulldogs | 3 |
|---|---|
 Army Black Knights | 59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Army about even · 0 Bryant
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bryant wins 0, Army wins 10.
- 1 BRY 17 ARMY 49
- 2 BRY 7 ARMY 48
- 3 BRY 7 ARMY 52
- 4 BRY 0 ARMY 49
- 5 BRY 0 ARMY 52
- 6 BRY 0 ARMY 56
- 7 BRY 0 ARMY 58
- 8 BRY 0 ARMY 61
- 9 BRY 0 ARMY 66
- 10 BRY 0 ARMY 70
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bryant wins 0% of them, Army 100%. The line is what actually happened: Army by 56.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bryant by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Bryant by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Bryant by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Army by 1–8 | 0.9% |
| Army by 9–16 | 3.5% |
| Army by 17+ | 95.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Stoyanovich, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- D. Jones, 37 yds made · 78% expected
- D. Jones, 54 yds missed · 48% expected
Penalties: Bryant 5 for 36 yards, Army 2 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:23 | Illegal Formation on Bryant, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARMY +0.3 pts |
| Q2 5:24 | Personal Foul on Army, 15 yards | 0% BRY +1.6 pts |
| Q2 4:40 | False Start on Bryant, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARMY +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:11 | Holding on Army, 10 yards | 0% BRY +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:01 | Offside on Bryant, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARMY +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:31 | Unnecessary Roughness on Bryant, 15 yards | 0% ARMY +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:19 | Face Mask on Bryant, 6 yards | 0% ARMY +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Army’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:08 | Bryant was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +0% ARMY | BRY: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 13:23 | Illegal Formation on Bryant, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 9:47 | Bryant was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +0% ARMY | BRY: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 7:36 | Army converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +0% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 6:30 | Bryant was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +0% ARMY | BRY: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 4:24 | Army converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +0% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 14:24 | Bryant converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedBryant fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% BRY | BRY: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 12:31 | Unnecessary Roughness on Bryant, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bryant 0% · Army 100%
- Final margin
- Army by 56
- Luck in points
- 7.4 for Army
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Army by 48.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Bryant 0% · Army 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Bryant · 
Army
More from Week 1 2026
- The Citadel at Charlotte CIT 43–41 · replay 23% for the winner
- Florida International at South Florida USF 19–9 · replay 44% for the winner
- UAlbany at Buffalo BUF 21–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Memphis MEM 42–24 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- UAB at Illinois ILL 42–23 · replay 95% for the winner
- Rhode Island at Temple TEM 38–14 · replay 95% for the winner
- Towson at Navy NAVY 42–15 · replay 97% for the winner
- Tulane at Duke DUKE 17–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Houston Christian at Rice RICE 31–3 · replay 98% for the winner