Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Towson at Navy, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Navy beat Towson 42–15, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Navy wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Navy was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Towson Tigers | 15 |
|---|---|
 Navy Midshipmen | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Navy about even · −3 Towson
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Towson wins 0, Navy wins 10.
- 1 TOW 17 NAVY 21
- 2 TOW 21 NAVY 31
- 3 TOW 21 NAVY 35
- 4 TOW 17 NAVY 35
- 5 TOW 10 NAVY 31
- 6 TOW 17 NAVY 42
- 7 TOW 0 NAVY 28
- 8 TOW 14 NAVY 45
- 9 TOW 3 NAVY 38
- 10 TOW 7 NAVY 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Towson wins 3% of them, Navy 97%. The line is what actually happened: Navy by 27.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Towson by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Towson by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Towson by 1–8 | 2.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Navy by 1–8 | 7.8% |
| Navy by 9–16 | 15.6% |
| Navy by 17+ | 72.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- Z. Faridi, 40 yds made · 72% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Towson 2 for 10 yards, Navy 6 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:35 | Delay of Game on Towson, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOW +0.3 pts |
| Q1 9:01 | Holding on Navy, 10 yards | 0% TOW +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:31 | Roughing the Passer on Navy, 15 yards | 0% TOW +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:47 | Holding on Navy, 10 yards | 0% TOW +1.7 pts |
| Q2 3:40 | Delay of Game on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOW +0.4 pts |
| Q3 1:52 | Delay of Game on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOW +0.4 pts |
| Q4 12:41 | Holding on Navy, 10 yards | 0% TOW +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:46 | Offside on Towson, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% NAVY +2.3 pts |
When it happened
Navy’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:39 | Navy converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +0% NAVY | NAVY: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 4:40 | Navy converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% NAVY | NAVY: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 14:17 | Navy fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% NAVY | NAVY: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 10:10 | Navy converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +0% NAVY | NAVY: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 5:47 | Holding on Navy, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% TOW | TOW: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 3:40 | Navy was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedDelay of Game on Navy, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% TOW | NAVY: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 2:17 | Towson was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +0% NAVY | TOW: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 4:46 | Offside on Towson, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +1% NAVY | NAVY: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Towson 0% · Navy 100%
- Final margin
- Navy by 27
- Luck in points
- 9.1 for Navy
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Navy by 17.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Towson 3% · Navy 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Towson · 
Navy
More from Week 1 2026
- The Citadel at Charlotte CIT 43–41 · replay 23% for the winner
- Florida International at South Florida USF 19–9 · replay 44% for the winner
- UAlbany at Buffalo BUF 21–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Memphis MEM 42–24 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- UAB at Illinois ILL 42–23 · replay 95% for the winner
- Rhode Island at Temple TEM 38–14 · replay 95% for the winner
- Tulane at Duke DUKE 17–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Houston Christian at Rice RICE 31–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- East Carolina at Alabama ALA 48–10 · replay 99% for the winner