Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
East Carolina at Alabama, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Alabama beat East Carolina 48–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Alabama wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Alabama was a 97% favorite.
Final
 East Carolina Pirates | 10 |
|---|---|
 Alabama Crimson Tide | 48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Alabama about even · −1 East Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. East Carolina wins 0, Alabama wins 10.
- 1 ECU 17 ALA 24
- 2 ECU 7 ALA 22
- 3 ECU 7 ALA 26
- 4 ECU 17 ALA 38
- 5 ECU 0 ALA 24
- 6 ECU 3 ALA 31
- 7 ECU 7 ALA 38
- 8 ECU 7 ALA 42
- 9 ECU 3 ALA 41
- 10 ECU 0 ALA 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
East Carolina wins 1% of them, Alabama 99%. The line is what actually happened: Alabama by 38.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| East Carolina by 17+ | 0.1% |
| East Carolina by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| East Carolina by 1–8 | 0.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Alabama by 1–8 | 4.0% |
| Alabama by 9–16 | 7.4% |
| Alabama by 17+ | 87.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Talty, 41 yds made · 69% expected
- N. Perez, 34 yds made · 82% expected
- C. Talty, 21 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: East Carolina 7 for 61 yards, Alabama 6 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:08 | Delay of Game on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ECU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 6:12 | Illegal Forward Pass on Alabama, 5 yards | 0% ECU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 6:02 | Roughing the Passer on East Carolina, 15 yards | +1% ALA +2.4 pts |
| Q1 5:50 | False Start on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ECU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 4:12 | Delay of Game on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ALA +0.9 pts |
| Q1 2:12 | Face Mask on East Carolina, 15 yards | 0% ALA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 14:54 | Offside on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ALA +2.8 pts |
| Q2 9:59 | Illegal Formation on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ALA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:15 | Personal Foul on East Carolina, 12 yards | 0% ALA +1.0 pts |
| Q2 3:54 | Intentional Grounding on Alabama, 0 yards | 0% ECU 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:33 | Offside on East Carolina, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% ALA +2.7 pts |
| Q3 10:46 | Holding on Alabama, 10 yards | 0% ECU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:54 | False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ALA +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Alabama’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:43 | Alabama converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +1% ALA | ALA: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 11:08 | Delay of Game on Alabama, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% ECU | ECU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:30 | C. Talty made a 41-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him | +0% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 8:51 | East Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +0% ALA | ECU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 6:02 | Roughing the Passer on East Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 14:54 | Offside on East Carolina, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 12:36 | Alabama converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +0% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 9:15 | Personal Foul on East Carolina, 12 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by AlabamaSpecial teams | +0% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
East Carolina 0% · Alabama 100%
- Final margin
- Alabama by 38
- Luck in points
- 16.8 for Alabama
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Alabama by 21.2
- Replay with same day's form
- East Carolina 1% · Alabama 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
East Carolina · 
Alabama
More from Week 1 2026
- The Citadel at Charlotte CIT 43–41 · replay 23% for the winner
- Florida International at South Florida USF 19–9 · replay 44% for the winner
- Louisville vs Ole Miss MISS 41–38 · replay 57% for the winner
- Baylor vs Auburn AUB 17–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Memphis MEM 42–24 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- UAB at Illinois ILL 42–23 · replay 95% for the winner
- Rhode Island at Temple TEM 38–14 · replay 95% for the winner
- Austin Peay at Vanderbilt VAN 28–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Towson at Navy NAVY 42–15 · replay 97% for the winner