luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

UL Monroe at Mississippi State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Mississippi State beat UL Monroe 62–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Mississippi State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Mississippi State was a 97% favorite.

Final

UL Monroe Warhawks 13
Mississippi State Bulldogs 62

September 5, 2026 · Davis Wade Stadium · Closing line: Mississippi State −28.5

Luck index 0 Mississippi State about even · 0 UL Monroe

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UL Monroe wins 0, Mississippi State wins 10.

  1. 1 ULM 14 MSST 45
  2. 2 ULM 3 MSST 42
  3. 3 ULM 0 MSST 45
  4. 4 ULM 7 MSST 56
  5. 5 ULM 10 MSST 63
  6. 6 ULM 7 MSST 63
  7. 7 ULM 10 MSST 69
  8. 8 ULM 14 MSST 77
  9. 9 ULM 6 MSST 73
  10. 10 ULM 14 MSST 91

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UL Monroe wins 0% of them, Mississippi State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Mississippi State by 49.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UL Monroe by 17+0.0%
UL Monroe by 9–160.0%
UL Monroe by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Mississippi State by 1–80.5%
Mississippi State by 9–162.3%
Mississippi State by 17+97.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to Mississippi State: the final margin was Mississippi State by 49, without the luck Mississippi State by 42.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • A. Murray, 43 yds made · 67% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 26 yds made · 93% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 32 yds made · 87% expected
  • A. Murray, 52 yds made · 51% expected
  • A. Murray, 40 yds missed · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UL Monroe 5 for 55 yards, Mississippi State 8 for 78 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:31 False Start on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +1.4 pts
Q1 1:16 Unnecessary Roughness on UL Monroe, 15 yards 0% MSST +0.9 pts
Q2 11:35 Kick Catch Interference on UL Monroe, 15 yards 0% MSST +0.9 pts
Q2 7:26 False Start on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +0.9 pts
Q3 12:15 Unnecessary Roughness on Mississippi State, 15 yards 0% ULM +2.2 pts
Q3 10:14 Unnecessary Roughness on Mississippi State, 12 yards 0% ULM +0.7 pts
Q3 7:50 False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ULM +0.6 pts
Q3 4:59 Personal Foul on Mississippi State, 15 yards 0% ULM +1.6 pts
Q3 2:18 Holding on Mississippi State, 11 yards 0% ULM +0.7 pts
Q3 1:14 Delay of Game on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ULM +1.4 pts
Q4 10:33 Offside on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ULM +0.4 pts
Q4 1:50 Kick Catch Interference on UL Monroe, 15 yards 0% MSST +0.9 pts
Q4 0:52 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards 0% ULM +0.6 pts

When it happened

Mississippi State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Mississippi State was ahead in it, below while UL Monroe was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:23 Mississippi State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +0% MSST MSST: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:31 False Start on UL Monroe, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% MSST MSST: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:52 UL Monroe was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +0% MSST ULM: Punt
4 Q1 9:08 UL Monroe was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +0% MSST ULM: Punt
5 Q1 7:47 Mississippi State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +0% MSST MSST: Touchdown
6 Q1 5:58 Mississippi State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +0% MSST MSST: Touchdown
7 Q1 4:59 UL Monroe converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +0% ULM ULM: Field goal
8 Q1 2:48 UL Monroe converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +0% ULM ULM: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UL Monroe 0% · Mississippi State 100%

Final margin
Mississippi State by 49
Luck in points
6.9 for Mississippi State
Luck-adjusted margin
Mississippi State by 42.1
Replay with same day's form
UL Monroe 0% · Mississippi State 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · UL Monroe · Mississippi State

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