Sun Belt · 2026 season, in progress

UL Monroe Warhawks: luck and expected wins

UL Monroe is 0–4 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.2 wins. Luck cost 1.2: the 5th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–2.

2026, game by game

How often UL Monroe wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Mississippi State	L 13–62	0%	0
Week 2	@ UAB	L 20–26	19%	−19
Week 3	vs SE Louisiana	L 35–38	72%	−72
Week 4	vs Florida Atlantic	L 17–45	30%	−30

Wk 1 0 @ MSST

Wk 2 −19 @ UAB

Wk 3 −72 vs SELA

Wk 4 −30 vs FAU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	UL Monroe win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at South Alabama	South Alabama by 20.5	10%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Louisiana Tech	Louisiana Tech by 15.1	18%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Troy	Troy by 19.3	12%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Southern Miss	Southern Miss by 9.3	29%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Arkansas State	Arkansas State by 18.6	13%
Week 11 · Nov 12	vs Louisiana	Louisiana by 18.1	14%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at App State	App State by 21.6	10%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Marshall	Marshall by 9.3	29%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in UL Monroe’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Pre-snap flags	+0.06	−5.7
Kicks	−0.06	−8.1
3rd & 4th downs	−0.14	−12.2

Luckiest wins

Wins UL Monroe takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 4	@ UTEP	W 31–25	84%	+16
2025 Week 1	vs Saint Francis	W 29–0	93%	+7
2025 Week 5	vs Arkansas State	W 28–16	97%	+3

Unluckiest losses

Losses UL Monroe would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 14	@ Louisiana	L 27–30	87%	−87
2026 Week 3	vs SE Louisiana	L 35–38	72%	−72
2025 Week 7	@ Coastal Carolina	L 8–23	69%	−69
2025 Week 8	vs Troy	L 14–37	42%	−42
2026 Week 4	vs Florida Atlantic	L 17–45	30%	−30

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	3–9	5.2	−2.2	1–1	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Saint Francis	W 29–0	93%	+7
Week 2	@ Alabama	L 0–73	0%	0
Week 4	@ UTEP	W 31–25	84%	+16
Week 5	vs Arkansas State	W 28–16	97%	+3
Week 6	@ Northwestern	L 7–42	6%	−6
Week 7	@ Coastal Carolina	L 8–23	69%	−69
Week 8	vs Troy	L 14–37	42%	−42
Week 9	@ Southern Miss	L 21–49	1%	−1
Week 10	vs Old Dominion	L 6–31	16%	−16
Week 12	vs South Alabama	L 14–26	10%	−10
Week 13	@ Texas State	L 14–31	18%	−18
Week 14	@ Louisiana	L 27–30	87%	−87