luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025

Arkansas State at UL Monroe, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

UL Monroe beat Arkansas State 28–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UL Monroe wins 10 of 10.

An off day for Arkansas State: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against UL Monroe it would win 35% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%. The numbers

Before kickoff UL Monroe was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:34 left): Return touchdown by Arkansas State, worth 12 points of win probability to Arkansas State.

Final

Arkansas State Red Wolves 16
UL Monroe Warhawks 28

September 27, 2025 · Malone Stadium · Closing line: UL Monroe −1.5

Luck index +3 UL Monroe about even · −3 Arkansas State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Arkansas State wins 0, UL Monroe wins 10.

  1. 1 ARST 7 ULM 10
  2. 2 ARST 7 ULM 16
  3. 3 ARST 10 ULM 23
  4. 4 ARST 14 ULM 30
  5. 5 ARST 0 ULM 19
  6. 6 ARST 14 ULM 35
  7. 7 ARST 20 ULM 45
  8. 8 ARST 10 ULM 38
  9. 9 ARST 7 ULM 40
  10. 10 ARST 0 ULM 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Arkansas State

Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against UL Monroe it would win 35% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%.

32 points apart for Arkansas State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Arkansas State offenseEPA per play gained −0.29 +0.05 worse by 0.34
Arkansas State defenseEPA per play allowed +0.21 +0.09 worse by 0.12
UL Monroe offenseEPA per play gained +0.21 +0.07 better by 0.14
UL Monroe defenseEPA per play allowed −0.29 +0.06 better by 0.35

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Arkansas State wins 3% of them, UL Monroe 97%. The line is what actually happened: UL Monroe by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Arkansas State by 17+0.2%
Arkansas State by 9–160.5%
Arkansas State by 1–82.3%
Level after regulation0.4%
UL Monroe by 1–88.0%
UL Monroe by 9–1615.8%
UL Monroe by 17+72.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to Arkansas State: the final margin was UL Monroe by 12, without the luck UL Monroe by 16.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Van Andel, 51 yds made · 54% expected
  • C. Van Andel, 23 yds missed · 94% expected
  • C. Van Andel, 43 yds made · 68% expected
  • C. Van Andel, 30 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Arkansas State 2 for 18 yards, UL Monroe 8 for 58 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards +1% ARST +0.6 pts
Q1 3:35 Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards +3% ARST +1.3 pts
Q2 8:13 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Arkansas State, 13 yards +3% ULM +1.5 pts
Q2 0:08 Pass Interference on UL Monroe, 15 yards +3% ARST +1.6 pts
Q3 5:03 False Start on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARST +1.2 pts
Q3 2:12 Pass Interference on UL Monroe, 2 yards +2% ARST +0.8 pts
Q3 1:41 Pass Interference on UL Monroe, 6 yards +3% ARST +1.1 pts
Q4 10:38 Delay of Game on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ARST +0.7 pts
Q4 10:14 False Start on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARST +0.6 pts
Q4 4:50 False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ULM +0.3 pts

When it happened

UL Monroe’s chance of winning

As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UL Monroe was ahead in it, below while Arkansas State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:34 Return touchdown by Arkansas StateSpecial teams +12% ARST ARST: End of half
2 Q2 3:02 Arkansas State was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% ULM ARST: End of half
3 Q2 0:14 Arkansas State converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% ARST ARST: End of half
4 Q3 12:18 Arkansas State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedUL Monroe converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expectedArkansas State fumbled and UL Monroe recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% ULM ARST: Turnover
5 Q3 8:53 Arkansas State converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +6% ARST ARST: Field goal
6 Q3 7:53 Arkansas State converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% ARST ARST: Field goal
7 Q4 14:21 Arkansas State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedArkansas State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% ARST ARST: Field goal
8 Q4 2:22 Arkansas State converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +8% ARST ARST: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Arkansas State 1% · UL Monroe 99%

Final margin
UL Monroe by 12
Luck in points
4.1 for Arkansas State
Luck-adjusted margin
UL Monroe by 16.1
Replay with same day's form
Arkansas State 3% · UL Monroe 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Arkansas State · UL Monroe

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