Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Georgia Southern at James Madison, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
James Madison beat Georgia Southern 35–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, James Madison wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff James Madison was an 83% favorite.
Final
 Georgia Southern Eagles | 10 |
|---|---|
 James Madison Dukes | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 James Madison about even · 0 Georgia Southern
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia Southern wins 0, James Madison wins 10.
- 1 GASO 3 JMU 17
- 2 GASO 10 JMU 31
- 3 GASO 13 JMU 38
- 4 GASO 7 JMU 36
- 5 GASO 2 JMU 35
- 6 GASO 0 JMU 35
- 7 GASO 7 JMU 45
- 8 GASO 7 JMU 49
- 9 GASO 3 JMU 49
- 10 GASO 0 JMU 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia Southern wins 0% of them, James Madison 100%. The line is what actually happened: James Madison by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia Southern by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Georgia Southern by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Georgia Southern by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| James Madison by 1–8 | 1.3% |
| James Madison by 9–16 | 3.5% |
| James Madison by 17+ | 95.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Suarez, 44 yds missed · 65% expected
- T. Bryant, 26 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: Georgia Southern 2 for 20 yards, James Madison 7 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:04 | Roughing the Passer on Georgia Southern, 15 yards | +3% JMU +3.0 pts |
| Q1 4:04 | Illegal Formation on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GASO +1.3 pts |
| Q1 0:49 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards | 0% GASO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:23 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GASO +0.3 pts |
| Q3 1:52 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards | 0% JMU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:52 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards | 0% GASO +1.4 pts |
| Q3 1:52 | Illegal Shift on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 0:21 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards | 0% GASO +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:02 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GASO +1.3 pts |
When it happened
James Madison’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:21 | James Madison was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% GASO | JMU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:29 | Georgia Southern fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% GASO | GASO: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 6:38 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +2% GASO | GASO: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 4:04 | Roughing the Passer on Georgia Southern, 15 yardsJudgment callsIllegal Formation on James Madison, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% JMU | JMU: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q1 1:41 | James Madison converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +2% JMU | JMU: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q2 14:54 | M. Suarez missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him | +2% GASO | JMU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 10:43 | James Madison converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +1% JMU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 9:15 | James Madison converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +1% JMU | JMU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia Southern 0% · James Madison 100%
- Final margin
- James Madison by 25
- Luck in points
- 1.9 for James Madison
- Luck-adjusted margin
- James Madison by 23.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia Southern 0% · James Madison 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Georgia Southern · 
James Madison
More from Week 5 2025
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- South Alabama at North Texas UNT 36–22 · replay 72% for the winner
- Arkansas State at UL Monroe ULM 28–16 · replay 97% for the winner
- App State at Boise State BOIS 47–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Southern Miss USM 42–25 · replay 99% for the winner
- Liberty at Old Dominion ODU 21–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner