South Alabama at North Texas, Week 5 2025: who deserved it?

Final

South Alabama Jaguars	22
North Texas Mean Green	36

September 27, 2025 · DATCU Stadium · Closing line: North Texas −13.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +28 North Texas lucky · −28 South Alabama

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. South Alabama wins 3, North Texas wins 7.

1 USA 35 UNT 17
2 USA 24 UNT 14
3 USA 24 UNT 21
4 USA 14 UNT 17
5 USA 7 UNT 12
6 USA 14 UNT 23
7 USA 14 UNT 27
8 USA 23 UNT 38
9 USA 10 UNT 31
10 USA 0 UNT 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

South Alabama wins 28% of them, North Texas 72%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: North Texas by 14.

Actual: North Texas by 14 494235282114707142128354249 ← South Alabama win by North Texas win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
South Alabama by 17+	4.5%
South Alabama by 9–16	8.2%
South Alabama by 1–8	14.0%
Level after regulation	5.0%
North Texas by 1–8	21.3%
North Texas by 9–16	19.6%
North Texas by 17+	27.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Pre-snap flags +4% USA

Kicks +4% USA

3rd & 4th downs +4% USA

All luck +12% USA

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 points to North Texas: the final margin was North Texas by 14, without the luck North Texas by 13.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: South Alabama 8 for 79 yards, North Texas 5 for 41 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 10:24	Holding on North Texas, 8 yards, wiping out the play	+6% USA +3.3 pts
Q1 4:03	Pass Interference on South Alabama, 15 yards	+3% UNT +2.3 pts
Q1 3:56	Holding on North Texas, 10 yards	+2% USA +1.4 pts
Q2 2:23	Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards, wiping out the play	+2% UNT +1.4 pts
Q2 2:07	Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards, wiping out the play	+1% UNT +1.2 pts
Q3 10:45	Illegal Touching on North Texas, 4 yards	+2% USA +1.7 pts
Q3 8:48	Unnecessary Roughness on South Alabama, 15 yards	+2% UNT +1.6 pts
Q3 5:59	Offside on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap	+4% USA +5.2 pts
Q4 13:35	Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards	0% UNT +0.6 pts
Q4 13:17	Intentional Grounding on South Alabama, 14 yards	+1% UNT +2.5 pts
Q4 11:12	Penalty on South Alabama, 0 yards	0% UNT 0.0 pts
Q4 6:16	Pass Interference on North Texas, 9 yards	0% USA +4.5 pts
Q4 2:07	Holding on North Texas, 10 yards	0% USA +1.5 pts

When it happened

North Texas’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

North Texas 50% South Alabama Q1Q2Q3Q4 245678

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while North Texas was ahead in it, below while South Alabama was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 10:40	South Alabama converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected	+5% USA	USA: Punt
2	Q1 10:24	Holding on North Texas, 8 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls	+6% USA	USA: Punt
3	Q1 9:33	North Texas converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected	+4% UNT	UNT: Touchdown
4	Q1 2:30	K. Nguma missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him	+4% USA	UNT: Punt
5	Q2 12:01	South Alabama converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected	+5% USA	USA: Turnover
6	Q2 10:21	South Alabama converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected	+4% USA	USA: Turnover
7	Q3 10:25	North Texas converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected	+4% UNT	UNT: Touchdown
8	Q3 5:59	Offside on South Alabama, 5 yardsPre-snap flags	+4% USA	UNT: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

South Alabama 5% · North Texas 95%

Final margin: North Texas by 14
Luck in points: 0.3 for North Texas
Luck-adjusted margin: North Texas by 13.7
Replay with same day's form: South Alabama 28% · North Texas 72% unchanged: why

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 50%Fumble bounces 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 0%Pre-snap flags 100%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

South Alabama converted 4th & 2Q1 10:40
Holding on North Texas, 8 yards, wiping out the playQ1 10:24
North Texas converted 3rd & 6Q1 9:33
K. Nguma missed a 43-yard field goalQ1 2:30
South Alabama converted 3rd & 10Q2 12:01
South Alabama converted 3rd & 5Q2 10:21
North Texas converted 3rd & 14Q3 10:25
Offside on South Alabama, 5 yardsQ3 5:59

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · South Alabama · North Texas

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